000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010925
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N96W to 08N140W. No significant shower 
or thunderstorm activity is observed.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Broad weak ridging extends SE from a 1017 mb high centered near 
24N119W eastward to the southern tip of Baja California. A cold 
front extends from 32N114W to beyond 28N120W. The front will 
continue east and dissipate through later today over NW Mexico.
Gentle breezes and moderate seas will persist over Mexican 
offshore waters through Fri. 

A stronger front will approach Baja California Norte on Sat, 
preceded by strong southerly winds, including the northern Gulf 
of California Sat night. Winds will diminish Sun as the front 
drifts east through northern Baja California and dissipates. The 
front will also be accompanied by long period NW swell of 9 to 
12 ft reaching Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja 
California Norte by Sat afternoon. The swell will decay as it 
moves southward, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover the waters 
off Baja California through Tue morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds are expected during
the overnight and early morning hours through Tue.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf 
of Panama each night through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A prominent deep layer cutoff low centered NE of the Big Island 
of Hawaii near 26N141W supports a surface trough west of 140W. 
Diffluent flow to the east of the middle to upper level low 
along with abundant moisture in the tropics continues to support 
scattered showers from 15N to 26N west of 134W. Seas of 9 to 10 
ft in this area will subside to between 8 and 9 ft today as the 
winds diminish, but persist into Fri night from NW swell moving 
into the region.

Farther north, a cold front moving across the waters north of 
28N will dissipate later today over Baja California and the 
northern Gulf of California. Another cold front in far NW waters 
of the discussion area will reach from 30N130W to 24N140W by 
tonight, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Long period NW 
swell to 16 ft will also accompany the front as it moves across 
the waters N of 20N and approaches Baja California Norte Sat. 
High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to 
strong trades from 20N to 25N west of 135W early next week.

$$
Mundell