000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Fri Feb 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N95W to beyond 09N140W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad and weak ridging extends SE from weak 1017 mb high pressure centered near 26N125W southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge has weakened somewhat today as a cold front moves eastward to the north of the region into southern California and the northern portion of Baja California Norte. The front will continue east and dissipate through early Fri. Southerly winds may briefly pulse to 20 kt over the northern Gulf of California tonight ahead of the front, but overall gentle breezes and moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters through Fri. A second slightly stronger front will approach the region Sat, preceded by fresh southerly winds, pulsing to strong over the northern Gulf of California Sat night. Winds will diminish Sun as the front drifts east through northern Baja California and dissipates. The front will also be accompanied by longer period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft reaching Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja California Norte by Sat afternoon. The swell will decay as it moves southward, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover the waters off Baja California through Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gulf of Panama: A ship indicated winds to 25 kt just south of the Panama Canal earlier. This is indicative of pulses of fresh to strong winds which will persist from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero peninsula through tonight. Fresh winds will persist each night into the Gulf of Panama each night through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A prominent deep layer cutoff low centered ENE of the Big Island of Hawaii near 23N144W continues to support a surface trough west of 140W. Diffluent flow to the east of the middle to upper level low along with abundant moisture in the tropics continues to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 15N to 20N west of 135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is occurring over the forecast waters from 17N to 25N and W of 135W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in this area will subside to between 8 and 9 ft through early Fri as the winds diminish, but persist into Fri night due to NW swell continuing to move into the region. Farther north, a cold front is moving across the waters north of 29N and dissipate tonight into early Fri over Baja California and the northern Gulf of California. Another cold front is approaching the area from the west, and will move into the discussion area overnight. The front will reach from 30N130W to 24N140W by late Fri accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong NW winds. Long period NW swell of 8 to 12 ft will also accompany the front as it moves across the waters north of 20N and approaches Baja California Norte by Sat evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W early next week. $$ Christensen