000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from near 09.5N85.5W TO 03N93W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N95W TO 05.5N109W TO 06N132W TO 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of trough between 89W and 93W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 132W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 133W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad and weak ridging extends from a 1019 mb high near 29N131W southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along Baja California supports gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light variable winds prevail off Baja California Sur through the waters off of southern Mexico. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft, with the highest off Baja California Norte. Winds will weaken slightly today as a weak cold front approaches the area from the NW, and moves into Baja California Norte tonight where it will stall and dissipate. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly flow across most of the Gulf tonight will give way to fresh to locally strong S to SW winds to the N of 29N Thu evening and night, as a mid/upper level disturbance moves south along the coast of southern California, transporting a cold front into the northern Gulf of California. Winds will shift NW early Fri behind the front, then diminish as the front continues southward and weakens. Seas will peak around 5 ft overnight across far north portions of the Gulf. Looking ahead, another disturbance will move into California with a slightly stronger cold front moving across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by Sat evening into early Sun night. This will bring another pulse of strong S to SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Sat evening through early Sun. The front will also be accompanied by longer period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft reaching Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja California Norte by Sat afternoon. The swell will decay as it moves southward, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover the waters off Baja California through Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week with these winds reaching around 30 kt tonight. Gulf of Panama: Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds at night through early Fri. Seas downstream of the Gulf, south of 07N, seas are forecast to reach 6 to 8 ft with these winds Wed through Fri. A modest SW swell will begin to move into the regional waters late this afternoon through the weekend to raise sea heights a few feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A prominent deep layer cutoff low centered east-northeast of the Big Island of Hawaii near 22N148W continues to support a surface trough just west of 140W and the local forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high pressure farther north will support E to SE fresh to strong winds from 15N to 25N W of 135W through this morning, when the ridge is forecast to dissipate and the area of low pressure shifts to the north. Diffluent flow to the east of the middle to upper level low along with abundant moisture in the tropics continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms in this region as well. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will subside to 8 to 9 ft through early Fri as the winds diminish, but persist into Fri night due to NW swell continuing to move into the region. Farther north, a weak cold front will move into the waters north of 28N today, then sweep east of the region. A slightly stronger cold front will follow Thu night, move east and reach from Baja California Norte to 23N130W by early Sun. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 11 ft in NW swell will accompany the front across the open waters N of 15N through Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W early next week. $$ Stripling