000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 315 UTC Thu Jan 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N82W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 20N W of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad and weak ridging extends from 30N135W through the Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along Baja California supports gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light variable winds are off Baja California Sur through the waters off of southern Mexico. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft, with the highest off Baja California Norte. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are expected N of 29N Thu evening as a mid/upper level disturbance moves south along the coast of southern California supporting a cold front into the northern Gulf of California. Winds will shift NW early Fri behind the front, then diminish as the front continues southward and weakens. Looking ahead, another disturbance will move into California with a slightly stronger cold front moving across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by Sat evening into early Sun night. This will bring another pulse of strong S to SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Sat evening through early Sun. The front will also be accompanied by longer period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft reaching Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja California Norte by Sat afternoon. The swell will decay as it moves south, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover the waters off Baja California through Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week with these winds reaching around 30 kt tonight. Gulf of Panama: Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds at night through early Fri. Seas downstream of the Gulf, south of 07N, are forecast to reach 6 to 8 ft with these winds Wed through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A prominent deep layer cutoff low centered east-northeast of the Big Island of Hawaii near 22N147W continues to support a surface trough just west of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high pressure farther north will support E to SE fresh to strong winds from 15N to 20N W of 135W through Thu morning when the ridge is forecast to dissipate and the area of low pressure shifts to the north. Diffluent flow to the east of the middle to upper level low along with abundant moisture in the tropics support scattered showers in this region as well. Seas to 12 ft will subside to 8 to 9 ft through early as the winds diminish, but persist into Fri night due to NW swell continuing to move into the region. Farther north, a weak cold front will move into the waters north of 28N Thu then shift east of the region. A slightly stronger cold front will follow Thu night, move east and reach from Baja California Norte to 23N130W by early Sun. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 11 ft in NW swell will accompany the front across the open waters N of 15N through Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W early next week. $$ Christensen