000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale from 17N to 19N west of 138W: A prominent deep layer cutoff low centered east-northeast of the Big Island of Hawaii near 21N148W continues to support a surface trough just west of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high pressure farther north is supporting gale force winds to 40 kt from 17N to 19N W of 138W, and a larger area of E to SE fresh to near gale force winds from 12N to 21N W of 136W. Gale conditions are expected to end this evening as the surface ridge N of the area slightly weakens and the trough dissipates. However, strong to locally near gale force winds will prevail across the far western waters through Thu morning when the ridge is forecast to dissipate and the area of low pressure shifts to the north. Diffluent flow to the east of the middle to upper level low along with abundant moisture in the tropics support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in this region as well. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft during the period of peak winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 05N77W to 05N85W. The ITCZ continues from 05N85W to 05N107W to 04N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad and weak ridging extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 36N144W through west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The slight tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along Baja California supports gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Light variable winds are off Baja California Sur through the offshores of Guerrero, Mexico. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft, being the highest off Baja California Norte. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are expected N of 29N Thu evening into early Friday as a mid/upper level disturbance moves south along the coast of southern California supporting a cold front into the northern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, another disturbance will move into California with a slightly stronger cold front moving across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by Sat evening into early Sun night. This will bring another pulse of strong S to SW winds to the northern Gulf of California Sat evening through early Sun. The front will also be accompanied by longer period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft reaching Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja California Norte by Sat afternoon. The swell will decay as it moves south, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover the waters off Baja California through Tue morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to near gale force north winds are across the gulf this morning, expected to diminish to 20 kt or less this evening. Maximum seas during the peak winds this morning are 10 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week with these winds reaching around 30 kt tonight. Gulf of Panama: Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds at night through early Fri. Seas downstream of the Gulf, south of 07N, are forecast to reach 6 to 8 ft with these winds Wed through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See above for information on a gale warning today. A weak cold front is expected to move into the northern waters north of 28N Thu then lift northward. A slightly stronger cold front will follow Thu night, and reach from Baja California Norte to 23N130W by early Sun. Winds of 20 kt or less will accompany the front, however seas to 11 ft in NW swell are expected across the open waters N of 15N through early next week. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W Fri night through Sun. $$ NR