000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 032 UTC Tue Jan 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force northerly are expected again across the Tehuantepec region Tue evening through early Wed morning as new high pressure ridge builds southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This will be a short-lived Tehuantepec gap wind event as the the pressure gradient over SE Mexico weakens once again early on Wed. This will allow winds to diminish back to fresh to strong force by early Wed afternoon, and to 20 kt or less by Wed evening. seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with this event by early Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located near the Colombia/Venezuela border at 08N73W to 05N85W to 05N94W. The ITCZ continues from 05N94W to 04N110W to 08N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 100W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate northwest winds will diminish to mainly light to gentle winds tonight, with seas of 1-2 ft. Winds will become light from the southeast early on Wed and continue through Thu. A weak cold front is expected to clip the far northern Gulf of California late on Thu. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected ahead of the front by Thu night with seas building to 5 of 6 ft. A stronger cold front will approach the area on Sat, with fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front over the northern part of the Gulf. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula, producing light to gentle northwest to north winds and seas in the range of 4-5 ft in northwest swell. These winds will increase to moderate speeds north of 27N Tue afternoon and continue through Wed, with seas building to 5-7 ft. A weak cold front is expected to clip the far northeast waters late on Thu with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will approach the area on Sat followed by a new set of long period NW swell. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours most of the forecast period. These winds may reach near gale force tonight through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds at night through Thu night. Seas are forecast to reach 6 to 9 ft with these winds Wed through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure and associated frontal system just west of the forecast waters and a ridge that dominates the northern forecast waters is resulting in fresh to strong E to SE winds across the west-central waters, particularly from 07N to 11N W of 135W. By Tue evening, these winds are forecast to cover the waters from 16N to 22N W of 138W. These marine conditions are expected to persist on Wed, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft. As previously mentioned, a weak cold front is expected to clip the far northeast waters on Thu. A stronger cold front will be near 30N140W by Thu night, and move SE across the north waters through Sat, reaching northern Baja California. $$ GR