000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2033 UTC Mon Jan 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. The gradient will remain on the rather light side on Tue, then intensify again Tue night as new high pressure ridge builds southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains. The resultant strong north to northeast winds through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will increase to minimal gale force by late Tue night as they then span outward over the Gulf. The gradient will weaken once again early on Wed allowing for these winds to diminish back to strong to near gale force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure over Colombia near 07.5N74W to 05N85W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 04N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 105W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh northwest will diminish to mainly light to gentle winds tonight, with seas of 3-4 ft. Seas will lower to 1-2 ft early on Tue and 1 ft or less on early on Wed. Winds will be light and variable from Tue afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds will become light from the southeast early on Wed and continue through Fri. A surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters from a 1022 mb high pressure located near 34N126W. The gradient between it and relatively lower pressure over Baja California supports light to gentle northwest to north winds and seas in the range of 4-5 ft in northwest swell over the waters to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. These winds will increase to moderate speeds north of 27N Tue afternoon and continue through Wed, with seas building to 5-7 ft. A weak cold front is expected to clip the far northeast waters and far northern Gulf of California late on Thu. Winds over the far northern Gulf of California are expected to become southwest at strong speeds late Thu ahead of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast winds area expected across the Gulf of Papagayo at night, beginning tonight and continuing through Fri morning. Seas resulting from these winds will build to 8 to 9 ft mainly early in the morning through Wed. These winds may reach near gale force late Wed night into Thu and again late Thu night into Fri. Gulf of Panama: Expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds mainly at night. Seas are forecast to reach 8 to 9 ft with these winds by Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure and associated frontal system just west of the forecast waters and the aforementioned ridge is resulting in fresh to strong E to SE winds across the west-central waters, particularly from 07N to 11N W of 135W. By Tue afternoon, these winds are forecast to cover the waters from 10N to 22N W of 134W. These marine conditions are expected to persist on Wed, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft. $$ GR