000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 UTC Mon Jan 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0852 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to gale force N to NW wind flow will move into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, until Monday morning. The sea heights are forecast to build to 14 feet during the time of the peak winds. The wind speeds will slow down gradually, beginning on Monday morning. The wind speeds eventually will become light-to-gentle by Tuesday morning. The next chance for gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec occurs from Tuesday night until Wednesday morning. The sea heights are expected to build to the range from 10 feet to 12 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough passes through the coastal sections of Colombia near 05N77W, to 03N79W, to 06N88W and 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W, to 04N115W 06N124W 05N131W, and beyond 07N140W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to the north of the ITCZ, and within 45 nm to the south of the ITCZ, between 121W and 124W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 102W and 108W, and within 30 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 103W and 105W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere, within 120 nm to the north of the equatorial trough between 81W and 94W, and within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 107W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Moderate-to-fresh winds will be slowing down, with time, to light-to-gentle winds, until Wednesday morning. Sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet, at the present, will become 1 foot to 2 feet on Tuesday morning, and becoming 1 foot or less on Wednesday morning. The wind speeds will be light and variable from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A surface trough will develop in the Gulf of California from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The winds will be from the southeast. Light to gentle SE winds will continue through Friday. A surface ridge passes through 30N127W to 24N125W to 17N125W. Light to gentle N to NE winds and sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet in NW swell are to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. These conditions will change very little through Friday, as the weak ridge stays nearly in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will begin to pulse at night, across the Gulf of Papagayo, beginning Monday night and continuing through Saturday morning. The sea heights in the Gulf of Papagayo will build to 10 feet, from Wednesday onward, when peak winds are expected to reach near gale force. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds will change little until Monday night. These winds then increase to mainly fresh speeds from Monday night until Wednesday night. The sea heights in the Gulf of California are expected to range from 4 feet to 6 feet from Monday night until Wednesday night. The surface pressure gradient increases N of the area early on Thursday, between a strong ridge over the SE CONUS and a lower pressure that is across NW Colombia. Strong N-NE winds will funnel through the Isthmus of Panama, thus leading to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama. The wind speeds will reach 25 knots, and the sea heights will reach 8 feet. The wind speeds will slow down by Friday morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure west of the forecast waters and the 30N127W-to-17N125W surface ridge, is allowing for strong east to southeast winds N of 28N between 134W and 136W. Mixed long-period NW swell and SE swell through this area support seas of 8 to 12 feet. The wind speeds are diminishing with time. The sea heights will subside by Monday night. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW forecast waters on Tuesday morning, with seas to 9 feet. A surface trough will develop just west of the area on Tuesday night. Expect E-SE fresh to strong winds from 15N to 20N between 135W and 138W. The trough is forecast to enter forecast waters on Wednesday morning and dissipate on Thursday morning. NW swell with seas to 11 feet will continue to move SE across the waters N of 10N through Friday. A cold front will enter the NE forecast waters on Thursday afternoon, and it will move across Baja California Norte on Thursday night. $$ mt