000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0430 UTC Mon Jan 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as strong to near gale force winds funnel across the isthmus of Tehuantepec associated with the passage of a cold front currently moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Gale winds to 40 kt in the gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through early on Mon with building seas to 15 ft. Winds will decrease to strong Mon afternoon as a 1020 mb high shift to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to be below advisory criteria by Mon evening with lingering swell subsiding downstream the gulf late Mon night. Strong high pressure will build east of the slopes of Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico by Tue afternoon and reach the isthmus of Tehuantepec Tue evening. This will lead to another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching gale force Tue night with seas of 10-12 ft. This event of gale force winds is expected to end Wed morning with resultant 8-9 ft seas propagating well to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to near 11N and between 96W and 99W by Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 04N77W to 03N80W to 06N90W to 04N98W. The ITCZ begins near 04N98W and then continues along 03N110W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 94W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds presently across the Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft. These winds will diminish further to light and gentle speeds on Mon morning and will prevail at these speeds through Wed morning. A surface trough will develop over Baja California Wed afternoon and winds across the Gulf will veer to southeast. Light to gentle southeasterly winds will then prevail through Fri. A ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center north of the area near 37N127W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A slight decrease in the ridge pressure now supports light to gentle N-NE winds to the west of the Baja California Peninsula along with seas of 4-5 ft in northwest swell. These conditions will change very little through Fri as the weak ridge stays nearly in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will begin to pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Mon night and continuing through Thu night. Seas in the Gulf of Papagayo will build to 10 ft Wed through Thu morning when peak winds are expected to reach near gale force. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds will change little through Mon evening. These winds then increase to mainly fresh speeds late Mon night through Wed night. Seas in the Gulf are expected to be in the range of 4-6 ft during this period. Early on Thu, the pressure gradient increases N of the area between a strong ridge over the SE CONUS and a low over NW Colombia. Strong N-NE winds will funnel through the isthmus of Panama, thus leading to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama with winds reaching 25 kt and seas 8 ft. Winds will decrease below advisory criteria Fri morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure west of the forecast waters and the ridge mentioned above is allowing for strong east to southeast winds N of 27N west of 135W. Mixed long- period NW swell and SE swell through this area support seas of 8 to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below advisory criteria later tonight, however the seas associated with the mixed swell will subside by Mon night. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW forecast waters on Tue morning with seas to 9 ft. A surface trough will develop just west of the area Tue night and will support E-SE fresh to strong winds from 20N to 22N west of 139W with seas combining with the area of swell to the north. The trough is forecast to enter forecast waters on Wed morning and dissipate Thu morning. However, NW swell with seas to 11 ft will continue to move SE across the waters N of 10N through Fri. Otherwise, a cold front will enter the NE forecast waters Thu afternoon and move across Baja California Norte Thu night. $$ Ramos