000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2230 UTC Sun Jan 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to gale force north- northwesterly flow behind a cold front extending from a 1009 mb low in the SE Gulf of Mexico and then SW to just south of the Bay of Campeche will funnel through the isthmus of Tehuantepec this evening. This will lead strong to minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, increasing to 40-45 kt later tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 15 ft during the time of peak winds. Gale force winds are expected to decrease to strong late Mon morning as a 1019 mb high shift to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds will be below advisory criteria by Mon evening with lingering swell subsiding downstream the gulf late Mon night. However, strong high pressure will build east of the slopes of Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico by Tue afternoon and reach the isthmus of Tehuantepec Tue evening. This will lead to another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching gale force Tue night with seas of 10-13 ft. This event of gale force winds is expected to end late Wed morning with resultant 8-10 ft seas propagating well to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to near 10N and between 94W and 101W by Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N83W to 05N89W. The ITCZ begins near 05N89W and then continues along 03N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 91W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds presently across the Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft. These winds will diminish further to light and gentle speeds on Mon afternoon and will prevail at these speeds through Wed morning. A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center north of the area near 36N128W southeastward to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure difference between the ridge and the typical diurnal trough just inland the coast of northwest Mexico is maintaining light to moderate north to northeast winds to the west of the Baja California Peninsula along with seas of 4-6 ft in northwest swell. These conditions will change very little through Tue as the weak ridge stays nearly in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will begin to pulse at night beginning late Mon night through Thu night. Seas in the Gulf of Papagayo will build to 10 ft Wed through Thu morning when peak winds are expected to be near gale force or 30 kt. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds will change little through Mon evening. These winds then increase to mainly fresh speeds late Mon night through Tue. Seas in the Gulf are expected to be in the range of 4-6 ft during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure west of the forecast waters and the ridge mentioned above is allowing for strong east to southeast winds N of 26N west of 134W. Mixed long- period northwest swell and SE swell through those waters support seas of 10-12 ft. Winds are forecast to be below advisory criteria tonight, however the seas associated with the mixed swell will subside by Tue morning. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the tropics is forecast to allow for moderate to fresh trades to exist over the waters from just north of the ITCZ region to near 18N and west of about 120W through Tue. Winds are forecast to become gentle, southeast to south in direction over the far western waters on Tue as a frontal approaches from the west. Winds will light to gentle in speeds over the far north-central waters through Tue. $$ NR