000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Sat Jan 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Winds and seas have diminished in this area. Strong N to NE gale force winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night as another cold front barrels into the Gulf of Mexico, then continue until Mon morning. Seas will build to between 10 and 14 feet by Mon morning. Seas 8 feet or greater will fan out to as far W as 10N99W by Mon evening. Winds will diminish and seas will slowly subside after Mon. Another round of building seas and gale force winds is forecast to begin on Tue as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico as high pressure surges along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains behind the next cold front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning over the far western portion of the area: Surface low pressure measuring 1009 mb is centered near 19N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 18N between 123W and 125W.Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere within 150 nm either side of a line from 14N123W to 20N128W to 22N132W to 22N137W. E to SE 30 to 35 kt winds fan out in the NE quadrant of the low up to 150 nm, with corresponding seas of 10 to 14 ft. Elsewhere E to SE winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 9 to 12 ft spread farther out in the NE quadrant up to 390 nm. The low is forecast to weaken and wrap NW around broader low pressure currently centered just W of the area near 16N141W. This will allow winds on the NE side of the low to fall below gale force by sunrise on Sun. The low will have weakened into a trough that extends from 28N138W to beyond 26N140W by Sun evening. This area of surrounding swell will slowly diminish in coverage by early on Mon, at which time mixed SE and NW swell will produce combined seas of 8 to 10 ft W of a line from 32N131W to 24N134W to 20N140W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Surface trough axis extends from 08N77W to 09N80W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 07N119W, then resumes from to 08N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 09N to 12N between 120W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW to N winds are occurring N of 25N for the time being. Winds will change little through Sun afternoon, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds as seas of 5 to 8 ft subside to between 3 and 5 ft. High pressure extending S across the Pacific waters is generating light to moderate N winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. This relatively light wind regime will persist through Tue as the weak ridge stays in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo through early this evening, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Winds will subside until Tue. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will pulse over the Gulf, mainly from the nighttime hours until the early afternoon hours of Sat. It is possible that the winds may become fresh again on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad 1034 mb high pressure centered W of Washington near 48N129W ridges S over almost all the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge, ITCZ, and broad area of low pressure S of 20N and west of 125W is generating fresh to strong trades between 10N and 20N W of 115W. Seas in this region are running between 6 and 14 ft, highest to the NE of the low. Model guidance suggests the area of fresh to strong winds will shift N this weekend in tandem with the low, but gradually diminish in areal coverage tonight and Sun as the low weakens. An extensive area of seas 8 to 11 ft in mixed NW and NE swell will cover the waters elsewhere generally north of 09N and west of 125W. This area of 8 ft seas will slowly retreat westward to near 130W by Sun evening. $$ CAM