000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The gale force north to northeast from last night have diminished to strong to near gale force this morning, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Strong north to northeast gale force winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun night, and continue until Mon morning. The resultant waveheights are forecast to build to the range of 10 to 14 feet on Mon morning. Seas 8 feet or greater will be from 11N northward between 93W and 98W on Mon morning. Winds will diminish and seas will slowly subside after Mon. Another round of building seas and gale force winds is forecast to begin on Tue as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico as high pressure surges along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning over the far western portion of the area: A surface trough extends from 18N132W to a 1008 mb low center near 17N134W. Areas of rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms are observed from 18N to 23N between 130W and 135W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 20N between 124W and 127W. Gale force east to southeast 30 to 35 kt winds are within 180 nm of the low in the NE quadrants, with seas of 10 to 14 ft. Elsewhere east to southeast of 20 to 30 kt are present from 18N to 25N between 126W and 132W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. The low pressure is forecast to move just west of the area near 19.5N140.5W by late tonight as it weakens. Winds of 20 to 25 kt are forecast between 360 and 510 nm of the low in the NE quadrant, with seas of 10 to 12 ft. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell are expected to the west of a line from 32N134W to 15N127W and to 10N140W at that time. This area of swell will slowly diminish in coverage by early on Mon, at which time mixed southeast and northwest swell is forecast to induce seas of 8 to 10 ft west of a line from 32N131W to 24N134W to 20N140W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Surface trough axis extends from 07N78W to 04N88W, where latest scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N110W to 07N120W and ends at 09N130W. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm north of the axis between 123W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Fresh to strong northwest winds are occurring from 25N to 29N for the time being, and will change little through Sun afternoon, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. High pressure extending southward across the Pacific waters of the eastern part of the area is bringing light to moderate north winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. This relatively light wind regime will persist through Tue as the weak ridge stays in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo through early this evening, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh north to northeast winds will pulse in the Gulf, mainly from the nighttime hours until the early afternoon hours of Sat. It is possible that the winds may become fresh again on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure to the north of the area covers all the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge, ITCZ, and broad area of low pressure S of 20N and west of 125W is generating fresh to strong trades between 10N and 20N W of 115W. Seas in this region are running between 6 and 15 ft, highest to the east of the low. Model guidance suggests the area of fresh to strong winds will shift N this weekend in tandem with the low, but gradually diminishing in areal coverage Sat night and Sun as the low weakens. An extensive area of seas 8 to 11 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell will cover the waters elsewhere generally north of 09N and west of 125W. This area of 8 ft seas will slowly retreat westward to near 130W by Sun evening. $$ Aguirre