000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The earlier gale-force winds have diminished to less than gale-force in the area, for the moment. Sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet cover the area...including the Gulf of Tehuantepec...from 14N northward between 94W and 96W. The wind speeds will slow down more and more with time, and the sea heights will subside with time, from now until, for the next 36 hours or so, until Sunday afternoon. N to NE Gale-force winds are forecast to return on Sunday night, and continue until Monday morning. The sea heights will build to 13 to 14 feet on Monday morning. Seas 8 feet or greater will be from 11N northward between 93W and 98W on Monday morning. The wind speeds will slow down and the sea heights will subside after Monday afternoon. Another round of building seas and gale- force winds is forecast to start on Tuesday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning for the Far Western Waters: A surface trough is along 19N131W to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 14.5N134W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 09N to 14N between 124W and 127W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 22N between 125W and 131W... everything is on the eastern side of the 1008 mb low pressure center. The 24-hour forecast is for the 1008 mb low pressure center to move northwestward and out of the area. 20 to 25 knot winds will be within 360 nm to 510 nm to the NE of the low center, with sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet. The wind speeds eventually weaken to less than 20 knots at 42 hours into the forecast period. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet in mixed SE and NW swell. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Surface trough from 07N78W to 04N88W. The ITCZ continues from 04N88W to 03N110W to 07N120W to 09N126WW. No significant deep convective precipitation currently is associated with the surface trough and the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW winds have subsided across all of the Gulf except for the part that is from 27N to 29N. High pressure in the Great Basin will remain strong through Sunday. The high pressure will combine with lower pressure along the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental in order to maintain a tight surface pressure gradient. The strong NW winds that are forecast to be in the Gulf of California will subside by Sunday night as the Great Basin high pressure center weakens. Seas associated with these winds will remain less than 8 feet. A surface ridge, that is extending S from the waters that are adjacent to the United States West Coast, is producing light to moderate N winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. This relatively light wind regime will persist through Tuesday as the weak ridge stays in place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will continue pulsing nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo until late on Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and then increase once again on Monday night. The sea heights in this area will peak around 9 feet later this morning. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf, mainly from the nighttime hours until the early afternoon hours of Saturday. It is possible that the winds may become fresh again on Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure to the north of the area covers all the forecast waters north of 10N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge, ITCZ, and broad area of low pressure S of 20N and W of 125W is generating fresh to strong trades between 10N and 20N W of 115W. Seas in this region are running between 6 and 15 ft, highest to the E of the low. Model guidance suggests the area of fresh to strong winds will shift N this weekend in tandem with the low, but gradually diminishing in areal coverage Sat night and Sun as the low weakens. An extensive area of seas 8 to 11 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell will cover the waters elsewhere generally N of 09N and W of 125W. This area of 8 ft seas will slowly retreat westward to near 130W by Sun evening. $$ mt