000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... High pressure over southern Mexico associated with a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico will induce gale force winds to 40 kt this morning, and continue through this evening. Winds will iminish slightly to around 30 kt tonight, then continue at minimal gale intensity Fri morning through early Sat morning. Maximum seas during this gap wind event will be 13 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 03N83W to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 04N122W to 07N133W. A surface trough is along 12N135W to 04N137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are from 08N to 17N between 127W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through Fri evening, becoming moderate Fri night as the pressure gradient across NW Mexico relaxes. Maximum seas will be 6-7 ft in the central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, high pressure north-northwest of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will diminish across this area Fri night and Sat morning as the high weakens and shifts north. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Peak seas will be 8 to 9 feet. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Sat morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure centered well north of the area extends a strong ridge across the forecast waters north of 10N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough extending from 12N135W to 04N137W is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 07.5N to 17N between 126W and 135W based on scatterometer data this morning. The trough is expected to drift slowly westward through Sat, develop into a closed tropical low around 1010 mb by Sat morning, then move northward between 135W and 140W Sat afternoon through Sun night. Seas associated with the low area expected to be 9 to 11 ft, with peak seas to 12-13 ft on Sun over NW forecast waters. A moderate long-period NW swell event will reach 30N140W on Fri with 7-8 ft seas, which gradually will push SE across the area. $$ Mundell