000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1423 UTC Wed Jan 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning. This will reach the isthmus of Tehuantepec and begin funneling northerly winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight. Winds are anticipated to reach Gale force Thursday morning and remain Near Gale or Gale through Saturday morning. Peak seas should reach 12 ft quickly by Thursday morning and max near 15 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thursday afternoon. Seas should rapidly diminish on Saturday. A weaker Tehuantepec gap wind event is anticipated to occur Monday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N92W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 07N129W, then resumes from 06N134W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 60 nm S of the axis and within 180 nm N of the axis between 110W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: The pressure gradient between ridging N of the area and a trough over NW Mexico is causing fresh to strong NW to N winds throughout the Gulf of California this morning. These winds will continue through early Monday with peak seas near 8 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico today will induce a gap wind event in Tehuantepec beginning tonight. See the special features section for further details. Elsewhere the aforementioned pressure gradient is also producing fresh to strong NE winds in the zones W of Baja California. These winds will diminish to moderate breeze conditions by Thursday night and remain quiescent through Monday. No significant long- period swell is affecting the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong pressure gradient driven by high pressure over the NW Atlantic is supporting NE strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of Papagayo. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Ship VRIV3 reported NE 25 kt and 7 ft seas in the Gulf this morning. These winds - stronger during late night/early morning hours - will continue through the weekend before diminishing on Monday. Gulf of Panama: N to NE strong breeze conditions are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Ship C6FR3 reported NNE 35 kt winds this morning, though it appears that their observations are biased 5-10 kt too high. The winds should drop to fresh breeze or lower by Thursday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high is centered N of our area near 36N132W and is helping promote NE to E tradewinds of moderate to strong breeze conditions. Winds are highest near 15N130W, northeast of a surface trough. Peak seas are near 11 ft as observed by an altimeter pass this morning at 1140Z. The pattern should remain relatively stationary for the next three days before the trough and strong breeze winds lifts northward on Sunday and Monday. A moderate long-period NW swell event will reach our NW corner of 30N140W tonight. These 16-18 second waves will have 8 ft peak seas, which will gradually push southeastward across the area while gradually diminishing. $$ Landsea