000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230339
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed 
morning and reach the isthmus of Tehuantepec Wed evening. 
Northerly winds behind the front will rapidly funnel across the 
isthmus of Tehuantepec, thus leading to a gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching gale force near 0300 UTC on Thu. 
Initial seas will be 9 ft, but will rapidly build to 16 ft as 
the winds increases to 40 kt through Thu afternoon. Minimal gale 
force winds of 35 kt will then prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sat morning. By Sat night winds and seas 
will be below advisory criteria. However, a new gap wind event 
is likely to commence on Sunday night as some model guidance 
indicate. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 
KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The equatorial surface trough passes through the coast of 
Colombia near 06N77W to 05N84W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N90W to 05N97W to 03N110W to 05N123W then resumes from 
04N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 
07N between 99W and 105W, and from 03N to 09N between 109W and 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The surface pressure gradient, between a broad ridge anchored NW 
of the area and a low pressure system along Oklahoma, Texas and 
northern Mexico is supporting fresh N to NE winds across the 
offshores waters of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW 
swell reach to Los Inocentes in Baja California Sur and the 
waters to the west N of 22N. High pressure N of the area 
strengthened tonight, thus allowing fresh to strong winds along 
the Gulf of California funnel through the mountain passages of 
central and southern Baja. Winds and seas associated with these 
gap winds will subside Wed night. Moderate NE winds will 
dominate the offshores of Baja Thu and Fri then become gentle 
through Sat.

Gulf of California: Strong high pressure building N of the Gulf 
will continue to support strong NW winds across almost the 
entire Gulf of California through early Sat. The strength, fetch 
and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 
8 feet to 9 feet in parts of the Gulf tonight.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front will move into the NW 
Gulf of Mexico on Wed, thus leading to another gap wind event in 
Tehuantepec. See the special features section for further 
details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong high pressure over the NW Atlc into the Caribbean 
supports gap wind events through the Gulf of Papagayo, and to a 
lesser extent in the Gulf of Panama. Winds across and downstream 
of Papagayo will reach near gale force tonight into Wed morning 
and then will maintain 25 kt force through the remaining 
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Panama through Wed morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A broad surface ridge dominates the Pacific Ocean waters north 
of 17N. The surface pressure gradient, between the ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will support fresh 
to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly west of 
120W. A surface trough along 127W will support the continuation 
of these winds and further enhance the winds to near gale force 
by Wed morning when it is forecast to be near 130W. Seas in the 
vicinity of the trough will range from 9 to 14 ft through Sat 
morning.

$$
Ramos