000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220403
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The equatorial surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N87W to 
04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 03N106W to 05N126W to 
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N 
between 116W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A strong pressure gradient between a broad ridge anchored NW of 
the area and a low pressure system just east of the Great Basin 
is supporting fresh to strong NW winds along the offshores of 
Baja California Norte just N of Punta Eugenia. NW swell 
associated with this event is supporting seas of 8 to 11 ft. 
These winds and associated swell will reach Puerto San Carlos in 
Baja California Sur by Tue morning. Seas will diminish gradually 
through Tue night when strong high pressure over the Great Basin 
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of California 
bleeding across Baja mountain passages. This gap wind event in 
Baja will continue through Wed morning with seas of 8 ft 
subsiding Wed evening.

Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin 
early on Tuesday, supporting strong to near gale force winds in 
the Gulf through the weekend. The strength, fetch and duration 
of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 
feet mainly in the northern parts of the Gulf by Tuesday evening.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico 
supports fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 
ridge will shift east Tue morning, allowing for the winds to 
diminish below advisory criteria. A new strong cold front will 
enter the Gulf of Mexico on Wed morning and will reach the 
isthmus of Tehuantepec at night. This will result in a gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with gale force winds beginning 
early Thu morning continuing through Sat morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

High pressure behind a stationary front in the NW Caribbean Sea 
will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama through the weekend, except for 
Panama where winds will diminish to less than advisory criteria 
on Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A broad ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north of 15N 
and west of Baja California. The surface pressure gradient, 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ, will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the 
ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. A surface trough may develop and 
deepen along 130W by mid-week. The GFS global model is most 
aggressive for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models 
show trough development, but lighter winds associated with the 
trough.

$$
Ramos