000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212209 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to support gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wind speeds will decrease to less than gale force early this evening as the high pressure weakens and it shifts eastward. The swell that has been generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 foot seas that will reach near 105W from the source region tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N87W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05N110W to 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 83W and 93W, and from 03N to 09N between 105W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong pressure gradient between a broad ridge anchored NW of the area and a low pressure system just east of the Great Basin is supporting fresh to strong NW winds along the offshores of Baja California Norte just N of Punta Eugenia. NW swell associated with this event is supporting seas of 8 to 9 ft. These winds and associated swell will reach Puerto San Carlos in Baja California Sur by Tue morning. Seas will diminish gradually through early Wed when strong high pressure over the Great Basin will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of California bleeding across Baja mountain passages. This gap wind event in Baja will continue through Wed in the afternoon. Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin early on Tuesday, supporting strong to near gale force winds in the Gulf through Thursday. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in parts of the Gulf by Tuesday evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building behind a strong cold front moving across the NW Caribbean Sea will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama through the weekend, except for Panama where winds will diminish to less than advisory criteria on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north of 15N and west of 110W. The surface pressure gradient, between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. A surface trough may develop and deepen along 130W by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough development, but lighter winds associated with the trough. $$ NR