000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to support gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wind speeds will decrease to less than gale force this afternoon as the high pressure weakens and it shifts eastward. The swell that has been generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 foot seas, that will reach near 103W from the source region by this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure, that is behind a strong cold front that is across the NW Caribbean Sea, will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to minimal gale force are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, with seas building to 12-14 feet. Strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tuesday night with seas ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet. Fresh winds also will pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N80W TO 06N88W TO 04N95W. ITCZ FROM 04N95W TO 03N101W TO 06N112W TO 05N125W TO 06N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE to ISOLATED STRONG rainshowers are within 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate north to northwest winds are along the offshore waters off Baja California. Large NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters this morning, then spread across the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California through Wednesday morning. Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin early on Tuesday, supporting strong winds in the Gulf through Thursday. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in parts of the Gulf by Tuesday evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure building north of the area and the equatorial trough, will maintain strong to near gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through thte next weekend, except for Panama where winds will diminish to less than advisory criteria early on Wednesday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please read the Special Features section for more details. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north of 15N and west of 110W. The surface pressure gradient, between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. Expect increasing wind speeds and building seas across the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of Punta Eugenia on Monday, and N of 25N W of Baja California on Tuesday. A surface trough may develop and deepen along 130W by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough development, but lighter winds associated with the trough. $$ MT