000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure in the 
Gulf of Mexico continues to support gale force winds the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this morning. Winds will decrease below gale force 
this afternoon as the high weakens and shifts eastward. Swell 
generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft 
seas that will reach near 103W from the source region by this 
evening. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 
KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure behind a strong 
cold front across the NW Caribbean tonight will support strong 
to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and 
Panama. Winds to minimal gale force are expected in the Gulf of 
Papagayo this morning, with seas building to 12-14 ft. Strong 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tue 
night with seas to 9-10 ft. Fresh winds will also pulse across 
the Gulf of Fonseca this morning. Please see the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under 
AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N88W to 04N95W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 04N120W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 124W and 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see Special Features section for more details on the 
ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle to moderate north to northwest winds are along the 
offshore waters off Baja California. Large NW swell, with seas 
in the 8 to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte 
offshore waters this morning, then spread across the remainder 
of the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed morning. 

Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin 
early on Tue, supporting strong winds in the Gulf through Thu. 
The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave 
heights of 8 to 10 ft over parts of the Gulf by Tue evening. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of 
the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near 
gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through next 
weekend, except for Panama where winds will diminish below 
advisory criteria early Wed. A Gale Warning is in effect for the 
Gulf of Papagayo. See Special Features section for more details.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A large area of high pressure dominates eastern Pacific north of 
15N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support 
fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 
125W. In addition, expect increasing winds and building seas 
across the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of 
Punta Eugenia on Mon, and N of 25N W of Baja California on Tue.
A surface trough may develop and deepen along 130W by mid-week. 
The GFS global model is most aggressive for a deeper trough and 
higher winds. Other models show trough development, but lighter 
winds associated with the trough.

$$
MUndell