000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will induce a very tight gradient over the area, and increase winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will increase to storm force today, then diminish below storm force tonight, and below gale force Mon evening. Seas will peak near 25 ft today during the period of highest winds. Swell generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft seas that will extend up to 700 nm from the source region by Mon evening. Marine interests transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today. This will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to gale force are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Mon evening, with seas building to 12-13 ft by Mon afternoon. Strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tue night increasing to near gale force early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N94W. The ITCZ continues from 05N94W to 04N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features for more details on the ongoing storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate north to northwest winds along the offshore waters off Baja California combined with long period NW swell is producing 8 to 9 ft seas over the waters off Baja California. Seas will slowly subside today. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters on Mon morning. This swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California through Tue night. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds across the entire Gulf. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on Sun afternoon as the high weakens and shifts eastward. Another ridge will build over the Great Basin early on Tue, leading to the return of strong winds along the entire Gulf through the middle of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through early next week. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please, see special features for more details. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 30N128W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, roughly south of 15N and W of 120W. The ridge will prevail and strengthen over the course of the week, thus maintaining strong winds over the central and western tropical waters. Long period NW swell will continue to dominate this region, with seas 8 ft or more in northwest swell. A weak cold front will drift across the NW corner of the area today and weaken. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring increasing winds and building seas across the west-central waters, and also over the offshore waters of Baja California, mainly N of Punta Eugenia on Mon. $$ Mundell