000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N81W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 01N104W to 03N116W, then resumes from 06N119W to 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 13N between 108W and 116W. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec storm warning...Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Winds will gradually diminish below advisory criteria this evening, continuing through Sat morning. The pattern will change abruptly Sat late in the afternoon as the leading edge of a strong cold front moves across the isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure surging southward behind the front will intensify winds to a strong gale Sat night and to minimal storm force Sun morning. Seas will quickly build, with wave model guidance suggesting values reaching near 21 ft by Sun morning. Storm conditions are expected to prevail through early Mon while gale force winds will continue to affect the gulf through Mon evening. Please see the National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features for details of a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Model guidance indicates that storm conditions are expected Sun morning through early Mon while gale force winds will continue to affect the gulf through Mon evening. Marine interests transiting through the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into early next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh north to northwest winds are along the offshores of Baja California with long-period northwest swell of 8-17 ft. This swell will bring dangerous surf and large breaking waves across Baja California Norte today through Sat evening. High pressure building west of Baja will support fresh to strong NW winds north of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay this evening into early Sat. Over the Gulf of California, high pressure building over the Great Basin north of the area will support fresh to strong NW winds extending the length of the Gulf from early Sat through Sun morning as the high weakens and shifts east. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through Sat evening. Gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo are likely to reach 30 kt at night as indicated by some model guidance. Fresh to strong northerly gap impacting the Gulf of Panama will extend into the waters south of the Azuero peninsula late tonight and early Sat. Gap winds will resume in the Gulf of Papagayo late Sat night as strong high pressure builds behind a cold front entering the NW Caribbean Sun morning. Gap winds will also resume in the Gulf of Panama early on Mon as the cold front reaches from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Winds to gale force are possible through the Gulf of Papagayo early on Mon, with seas building to 8-13 ft. Near gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the same period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A deep layered trough reaches the ITCZ between 110W and 125W and supports a broad area of scattered showers and tstms from 03N to 13N between 108W and 116W. The gradient between this area of low pressure and high pressure over the northern waters is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds from 04N to 12N between 108W and 121W along with seas of 10-11 ft. Large seas from 8 to 17 ft continue NW of a line from 2N117W to 08N91W to 3.4S. The ridge will weaken Sun, allowing winds and seas to decrease across the tropics. 8 to 9 ft seas will continue from Sun into next week south of 26N and west of 127W in a mix of NW swell and lingering NE wind waves. $$ Ramos