000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142212 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pres N of the region building southward across eastern Mexico continues to support minimal gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. This gale force wind event is forecast to continue through Wed morning, with strong northerly winds continuing across the Gulf through Fri, pulsing to minimal gale force Wed and Thu nights. Winds will then diminishing temporarily Fri night as the high pres weakens and shifts E. Peak seas will build as high as 14-15 ft in the area of gale force winds tonight, with NE swell in excess of 8 ft propagating as far as 105W by early Tue morning. This swell will merge with longer period NW and SW swell through the next few days to produce a large area of seas 8 ft and greater well to the south of the Gulf, from 05N to 12N between 93W and 106W. For more information, see the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFEP2. Looking ahead, a strong gale force to minimal storm force gap wind event is possible at the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the W central Pacific coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 03N81W TO 04N93.5W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93.5W TO 07.5N120W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 90W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 200 nm either side of line from 27N109W TO 20N111W TO 07N117.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from 30N118.5W TO 28N119W TO 21N130W and will stall out across the offshore waters W of Baja California through tonight. Moderate to fresh southerly flow ahead of this boundary across the waters north of 27N will diminish through tonight as the front weakens. Variable winds less than 15 kt prevail elsewhere across the waters north of 20N. Old long period NW swell of 6 to 9 ft will subside through this evening, while new and reinforcing NW swell will move into the waters tonight to build seas back up to 8 to 11 ft through Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure will build off the west coast of Baja California late this week, allowing fresh to strong northerly winds across the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Along with the increasing winds, a new and large set of NW swell will arrive by the end of the week building combined seas up to 10 to 14 ft by Fri night. Gulf of California: Weak high pressure centered in the eastern Pacific off Punta Eugenia will maintain gentle flow across the Gulf of California today. The high will weaken and shift E ahead of an approaching deep layer trough related to the cold front west of the area. This will briefly tighten the pres gradient over the southern Gulf tonight, allowing northerly fresh to strong winds between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes. Winds will diminish by early Tue as the high pres dissipates. Looking ahead, fresh northerly winds will return to the southern Gulf by late Thu as high pres again builds off the west coast of Baja California. The deep layered upper trough supporting the cold front approaching Baja is also supporting an elongated area of moderate to strong convection, extending from near the ITCZ along 120W north northeastward across the Islas Revillagigedo and adjacent offshore waters, and then across Baja California Surf, the southern Gulf of California and into northern Sinaloa. convection across the offshore waters and coastal areas will persist through tonight and then begin to diminish on Tue. The NW swell affecting the Baja coastal waters has moved SE today and is peaking at 7-10 ft across the offshore waters of Mexico to the south of 20N and west of 106W. Look for increasing NW swell this afternoon through tonight across the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel, raising seas to 6-8 ft before subsiding Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf region. The strongest winds and greatest areal coverage downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will be each night as nocturnal drainage flow augments the winds. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft by early Tue morning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will flow downstream to near 05N, with pulses to 20 to 25 kt mainly in the SW Gulf off the Azuero Peninsula. Accompanying seas will reach 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from 30N118.5W TO 28N119W TO 21N130W. This front will weaken and stall out across the offshore waters of Baja California, while a series of additional fronts sweep eastward across the northern waters through the next several days. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds N of 28N ahead of each boundary. Fresh to strong trades just N of the ITCZ across the W central waters will diminish tonight as the supporting pres gradient weakens. These trades will return and expand in coverage by the end of the week as the pres gradient tightens again. Meanwhile, NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the majority of the waters W of 110W-115W. Highest seas are found in the NW portion, up to 11 to 14 ft. While this NW swell gradually decays, several reinforcing pulses will propagate SE across the open waters through the end of the week. $$ Stripling