000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141502
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pres building N of the 
region across eastern Mexico is supporting strong to minimal 
gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force
wind event is forecast to continue through early Wed, then 
strong to near gale winds will pulse through Fri before 
diminishing temporarily Fri night as the high pres weakens and 
shifts E. Peak seas will build as high as 14-16 ft in the area 
of gale force winds, with NE swell in excess of 8 ft propagating 
as far as 105W by early Tue morning. This swell will merge with 
longer period NW and SW swell through the next few days. For 
more information, see the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFEP2. Looking ahead, a strong 
gale force to minimal storm force gap wind event is possible at 
the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the W central Pacific coast of
Colombia near 05N77W to 03N82W to 05N95W. The intertropical
convergence zone axis extends from 05N95W to 04N102W to 07N120W 
to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 06N to 13N between 112W and 120W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 16N to 23N between 111W and 117W.

This convection is supported by divergence aloft E of a deep 
layer trough along 125W N of 15N. Clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms will persist through today then diminish tonight as
the trough dampens out.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: Weak high pressure centered in the eastern
Pacific off Punta Eugenia will maintain gentle flow across the 
Gulf of California today. The high will weaken and shift E ahead
of an approaching deep layer trough related to the cold front 
west of the area. This will briefly tighten the pres gradient 
over the southern Gulf tonight, allowing northerly fresh to 
strong winds between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes. Winds will 
diminish by early Tue as the high pres dissipates. Looking 
ahead, fresh northerly winds will return to the southern Gulf by 
late Thu as high pres again builds off the west coast of Baja 
California.

A weakening cold front and pre-frontal trough are nearing 120W
from the W and will stall out across the offshore waters W of
Baja California through tonight. Moderate to fresh southerly flow
ahead of these boundaries will diminish through tonight as the
front weakens. An old set of long period NW swell of 8 to 9 ft 
will subside through the morning, while a new and reinforcing set
will build seas back up to 8 to 11 ft through Tue. Looking 
ahead, high pressure will build off the west coast of Baja 
California late this week, allowing fresh to strong northerly 
winds across the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Along
with the increasing winds, a new and large set of NW swell will
arrive by the end of the week building combined seas up to 10 to
14 ft by Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will prevail across the 
Gulf region. The strongest winds and greatest areal coverage 
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will be each night as 
nocturnal drainage flow augments the winds. Seas are forecast to
build to 8 to 9 ft by early Tue morning.
  
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will flow 
downstream to near 05N, with pulses to 20 to 25 kt mainly in the
SW Gulf off the Azuero Peninsula. Accompanying seas will reach 6
to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A weakening cold front extends from 30N120W to 22N128W with a
pre-frontal trough along 120W. This front will weaken and stall
out across the offshore waters of Baja California, while a series
of additional fronts move across the northern waters through the
next several days. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds N of 
28N ahead of each boundary. 

Fresh to strong trades just N of the ITCZ across the W central
waters will diminish tonight as the supporting pres gradient
weakens. These trades will return and expand in coverage by the
end of the week as the pres gradient tightens again.

Meanwhile, NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the
majority of the waters W of 110W-115W. Highest seas are found in
the NW portion, up to 11 to 15 ft. While this set of NW swell
decays, several reinforcing sets will propagate SE across the 
open waters through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky