000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1404 UTC Sat Jan 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building N of the region behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today and Sun will support pulses of strong to near gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late today. These winds will reach minimal gale force by late Sun, then persist through early next week. Strong gap winds will continue to pulse through mid week then gradually diminish as the high pressure weakens and shifts east of the Gulf. Seas will build as high as 14 ft in the area of gale force winds, with NE swell in excess of 8 ft propagating as far as 900 nm WSW downstream to mix with longer period NW and SW swell through early next week. For more information, see the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N76W to 03N82W to 04N89W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues from 04N96W to 07N111W to beyond 04N140W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated with these features. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches the northern coast of Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island later this morning. The front will lose definition as it continues east across Baja California and the Gulf of California today and tonight and become diffuse by early Sun. Long period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft accompanying the front will move into the offshore waters of Baja California and the western Revillagigedo Islands through late Sun. The swell will largely subside below 8 ft from north to south through early Mon, just as another dissipating cold front approaching from the W delivers a new round of large NW swell. The reinforcing push of NW swell will cross most of the open offshore waters of Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands to reach as far south as off the coast of Cabo Corrientes through mid week. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist through the middle of next week, except for brief periods of 10 to 15 kt winds over the northern Gulf, influenced by the slow passage of weakening cold fronts tonight and again late Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf region. The strongest winds and greatest areal coverage downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will be each night as nocturnal drainage flow augments the winds. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will flow downstream to near 05N with accompanying seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend. Winds in this area could become strong on Tue. The San Cristobal volcano in NW Nicaragua is no longer emitting volcanic ash. The volcanic ash advisory issued yesterday has been cancelled. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extending from 30N118W to 24N124W to 21N133W will move east of the area today and tonight as it dissipates. Recent altimeter data and ship observations indicate seas of 10 to 15 ft in NW swell in the wake of the front over the waters north of 20N. This swell is approaching an older area of seas exceeding 8 ft associated with a decaying area of NW swell lingering south of 17N. High pressure will build SE in the wake of the front and support development of an area of fresh to strong trade winds farther S from 07N to 12N west of 135W tonight through late Sun. Another cold front entering the discussion area this afternoon will cross the waters north of 25N. Strong winds are expected N of 28N in the vicinity of the front late today and tonight as the front passes between 140W and 130W. The current batch of large swell N of 25N will subside to less than 12 ft by tonight. However, the new cold front will provide reinforcing swell of 12 to 15 ft across the waters north of 25N Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, yet another cold front will follow on the heels of the first two and traverse the northern waters Mon through Wed and generate continued pulses of strong W winds and swell in excess of 12 ft. $$ CAM