000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1406 UTC Fri Jan 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
05N76W to 04N80W to 06N93W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N101W to 06N118W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 130W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The gale force N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have tapered
to near gale force. Strong high pressure over the the western 
Gulf of Mexico is shifting E ahead of low pres moving E from the
southern Rockies. Winds will rapidly diminish to 30 kt or less 
around after sunrise, and to less than 20 kt by late afternoon as
winds in the Gulf of Mexico veer sharply to the south. The next 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast by the computer 
models to begin on Sat night, reaching gale force Sun night 
through early Wed.

A weak ridge, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure near 27N119W, 
continues to dominate the waters west of Baja California, and is 
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across offshore waters
of Baja California. Large NW swell associated with an intense 
low pressure system that moved into northern California earlier 
this week is dominating the offshore and nearshore waters of Baja
California with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas in this area have begun
to subside and will continue to subside to between 4 and 6 ft 
Sat. Another round of NW swell is expected to reach the northern 
coast of Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island by Sat 
afternoon in association with the next cold front due to cross 
30N140W Sat afternoon. This reinforcing long period swell event 
will cause seas to rebuild to between 7 and 10 ft for the waters 
adjacent to Baja California by Sun afternoon.

Gulf of California: Gentle NW winds will cover most of the Gulf 
today beneath weak ridging overhead. Winds will then become 
variable less than 10 kt Sat and Sat night. A weakening cold 
front will move across the region from the west late Sat and Sat 
night. This may bring brief moderate to fresh westerly gap winds 
into the northern Gulf of California along 30N. 

Farther south, the long period NW swell continues to propagate
through the Mexican offshore waters W of 95W. These swell are 
mixing with shorter period NE swell emerging from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This area of combined swell will decay and shift
southward away from the Mexican offshore waters through Sun
afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the 
Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend primarily 
from the nocturnal drainage flow.
  
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to 
near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

The gale force winds accompanying the cold front entering the far
NW waters have decreased to near gale force. A new round of very
large, long period NW swell also accompanies the front. Recent 
altimeter data shows seas reaching as high as 19 ft in the wake 
of the front. Winds in the vicinity of the front will continue to
diminish during the next couple of days as the front weakens. 
Seas will subside gradually as well although swell of 12 to 15 
ft will still linger through the next 24 hours over waters north 
of 20N and west of 120W. The front is expected to dissipate Sat 
afternoon across central portions of Baja California and the 
northern Gulf of California.

Elsewhere, long period NW swell persists across the region west 
of 105W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident W of 125W between
the ITCZ and 15N. Fairly dry conditions continue, and little 
shower or thunderstorm activity is observed in the vicinity of
the ITCZ.

$$
CAM