000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Tehunatepec this evening and are expected to persist through early Fri morning. Currently, gales to around 35 kt extend southward from the coast to near 14N95.5W, with peak seas up to 13 ft. This gap wind event is being driven by strong high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds will rapidly diminish to 30 kt or less around sunrise Friday, and to less than 20 kt by late afternoon as winds in the Gulf of Mexico veer sharply to the south. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast by the computer models to begin on Sat night, reaching gale force Sun night through early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. Gale Warning: A strong cold front has reached the NW portion of the discussion area from 30N136W TO 28N140W, and is followed by large long period NW swell. Gale force SW winds of 30-40 kt are occurring N of 27N and east of the front to 132W this evening, while westerly gales prevail west of the front. As the front continues eastward, gale force winds to 40 kt are expected on either side of the front, but mainly N of 28N, through early Fri. Seas will build to 20-22 ft behind the front across far NW portions of the discussion area during the next several hours. Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of the front through Fri as it continues eastward, followed by seas of 12-17 ft in NW swell. The front is expected to dissipate Sat afternoon across central portions of Baja California and the northern Gulf of California. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 04.5N77W TO 01N81W TO 05.5N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N93W TO 07N124W TO beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 119W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 28N121W, continues to dominate the waters west of Baja California, and is producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across offshore waters of Baja California this evening, except N to NE winds from Cabo San Lazaro southward to 20N. Large and powerful NW swell associated with a low pressure system that moved into northern California is dominating the area offshore and nearshore waters of Baja California with seas of 9-13 ft. Seas will subside very slowly tonight through early Sat. This long period swell event will create dangerous surf conditions along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja California through Fri, producing strong rip currents in the surf zone, and localized areas of coastal erosion. Gulf of California: Gentle NW winds are expected across most of the Gulf through Fri under the weak ridge west of Baja, and then become variable less than 15 kt through the weekend. Elswhere south of 20N large NW swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands and SW Mexico this evening is expected to peak at 7-10 ft tonight into Fri morning and reach the entrance to the Gulf of California southward of 23N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend primarily from the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front has moved into the far NW part of the forecast area this afternoon and evening and extends from 30N136W TO 28N140W, and will continue eastward tonight. This will bring gale force winds and reinforcing large long period NW swell to the region as discussed above in the Special Feature Section. The front is forecast to reach a position from 30N127W to 25N135W to 23N140W by early Fri morning, and from 30N116W to 25N120W to 19N125W by early Sat morning. Seas of 8-11 ft associated with this front are forecast to reach the waters W of Baja California Norte by late Sat, and seas of 8-10 ft will affect the waters W of Baja California Sur on Sun. $$ Stripling