000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102207
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds continue across the 
Gulf of Tehunatepec this afternoon and are expected to persist 
through early Fri morning. Currently, gales extend southward 
from the coast to near 13.5N96W, with peak seas up to 15 ft. 
This gap wind event is being driven by strong high pressure 
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds will rapidly diminish 
on Friday as winds in the Gulf of Mexico veer sharply to the 
south. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast 
by the computer models to begin on Sat night, reaching gale 
force Sun night through early Wed. Please see the latest High 
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
for more details.

Gale Warning: A strong cold front has reached the NW corner of 
the discussion area near 30N140W, and is followed by large long 
period NW swell. Gale force SW winds of 30-40 kt are occurring N 
of 28N and east of the front to 135W this afternoon. As the 
front continues eastward, gale force winds to 40 kt are expected 
on either side of the front, but mainly N of 28N, through early 
Fri. Seas will build to 20-22 ft behind the front across far NW 
portions of the discussion area. Fresh to strong winds will 
persist on either side of the front through Fri as it continues 
eastward, followed by seas of 12-17 ft in NW swell. See the 
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W 
TO 01N81W TO 05.5N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N93W TO 
07.5N122W TO 07N134W TO beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 80W and 87W, and 
within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure near 27N122W, 
dominates the waters west of Baja California, and is producing 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across offshore waters of Baja 
California this afternoon, except N to NE winds from Cabo San 
Lazaro southward to 20N. Large and powerful NW swell associated 
with a low pressure system that moved into northern California 
is dominating the coastal waters of Baja California with seas of 
10-14 ft based on the most recent altimeter data. Seas will 
slowly subside tonight through early Sat. This long period swell 
event will create dangerous surf conditions along the coasts and 
outer reefs of Baja California through Fri, producing strong rip 
currents in the surf zone, and localized areas of coastal 
erosion.

Gulf of California: Gentle and variable winds are expected 
across most of the Gulf through this evening, and then will 
become gentle from the NW through Fri under the weak ridge west 
of Baja. Large NW swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands and 
SW Mexico this evening is expected to peak at 7-10 ft by tonight 
into Fri morning and reach the entrance to the Gulf of 
California southward of 23N. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the 
Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend primarily 
from the nocturnal drainage flow.
  
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to 
near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A strong cold front approaching the NW part of the forecast area 
this afternoon near 30N140W will move into the NW waters during 
the next several hours and continue eastward tonight. This will 
bring gale force winds and reinforcing large long period NW 
swell to the region as discussed above in the Special Feature 
Section. The front is forecast to reach a position from 30N127W 
to 25N135W to 23N140W by early Fri morning, and from 30N116W to 
25N120W to 19N125W by early Sat morning. Seas of 8-11 ft 
associated with this front are forecast to reach the waters W of 
Baja California Norte by late Sat, and seas of 8-10 ft will 
affect the waters W of Baja California Sur on Sun. 

$$
Stripling