000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1328 UTC Thu Jan 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehunatepec through early Fri morning. Currently, gales extend southward from the coast to near 14N96W, with seas to 16 ft, and maximum winds around 40 kt are expected. This gap wind event is being driven by strong high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds will rapidly diminish on Friday as winds in the Gulf of Mexico sharply veer to the south. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast by the computer models to begin on Sat night, reaching gale force Sun night through early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. Gale Warning: A strong cold front is approaching the NW corner of the discussion area near 30N140W, followed by reinforcing large long period NW swell. Gale force winds, likely in the 30-40 kt range, are expected on either side of the front, but mainly N of 28N, from early this afternoon through early Fri. Seas will build to 20-22 ft behind the front. Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of the front through Fri as it continues eastward, with seas of 12-17 ft in NW swell. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 06N95W to 05N96W. The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 07N115W to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is noted along the convergence boundary. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure located near 27N121W, dominates the waters west of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across offshore waters late this morning. Large powerful NW swell associated with a low pressure system that moved into northern California is affecting the coastal waters of Baja California with combined seas to 12-15 ft based on the most recent altimeter data. Seas will slowly subside tonight through early Sat. This long period swell event will create dangerous surf conditions along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja California today, producing rip currents in the surf zone, and localized areas of coastal erosion. Gulf of California: Gentle NW winds are expected across most of the Gulf through Fri under the weak ridge west of Baja. Large NW swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands and SW Mexico this evening is expected to peak at 8-10 ft by tonight into early Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend primarily from the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front will move across the NW part of the forecast area this afternoon and tonight, bringing gale force winds and reinforcing large long period NW swell to the region as discussed above in the Special Feature Section. The front is forecast to reach a position from 30N127W to 25N135W to 23N140W by early Fri morning, and from 30N116W to 25N120W to 19N125W by early Sat morning. Seas of 8-11 ft associated with this front are forecast to reach the waters W of Baja California Norte by late Sat, and seas of 8-10 ft will affect the waters W of Baja California Sur on Sun. $$ GR