000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100924
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds will prevail across the 
Gulf of Tehunatepec through early Fri morning. Currently, gales 
extend southward from the coast to near 14N96W, with seas to 16 
ft and maximum winds around 40 kt expected. This gap wind event 
is being driven by strong high pressure across the western Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds will rapidly diminish on Friday as winds in the 
Gulf of Mexico sharply veer to the south. Please see the latest 
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC for more details.

Gale Warning: A strong cold front is poised to reach the NW 
corner of the discussion area near 30N140W this afternoon, 
followed by reinforcing large long period NW swell. Gale force 
winds, likely in the 30-40 kt range, are expected on either side 
of the front, but mainly N of 28N, from midday today through 
early Fri. Seas will build to 20-22 ft behind the front. Fresh 
to strong winds will persist on either side of the front through 
Fri as it continues eastward, with seas of 12-17 ft in NW swell. 
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 05N96W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 07N127W to 06N140W. No 
significant convection is noted along the convergence boundary.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure near 27N121W, 
dominates the waters west of Baja California, producing gentle 
to moderate NW to N winds across offshore waters this morning. 
Large powerful NW swell associated with a low pressure system 
that moved into northern California is affecting the coastal 
waters of Baja California with combined seas to 12-15 ft. Seas 
will slowly subside tonight through early Sat. This long period 
swell will create dangerous surf conditions along the coasts and 
outer reefs of Baja California today, producing rip currents in 
the surf zone, and localized areas of coastal erosion.

Gulf of California: Gentle NW winds are expected across most of 
the Gulf through Fri under the weak ridge west of Baja. Large NW 
swell reaching SW Mexico this evening is expected to peak at 5-9 
ft by late Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the 
Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend primarily 
from the nocturnal drainage flow.
  
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to 
near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A large area of 12-16 ft seas in NW swell dominate the waters NW 
of a line from the central Baja California peninsula to 10N140W. 
Sea heights from an old cold front will gradually subside to 9-
12 during the next 24 hours, then a strong cold front will sweep 
into the NW part of the forecast area tonight, bringing gale 
force winds and reinforcing large long period NW swell to the 
region as discussed above. Combined seas will gradually diminish 
to 9-12 ft Sat night from northern Baja California to 08N140W. 

$$
Mundell