000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A scatterometer pass at 0300 UTC showed 30 kt winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly gap winds will increase to gale force within two or three hours after the ASCAT pass as strong high pressure expands eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions will prevail through Thu night, with winds rapidly diminishing on Friday as winds in the Gulf of Mexico sharply veer to the south. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the NW part of the discussion area near 30N140W by late Thu morning, followed by reinforcing large long period NW swell. Strong to gale force SW to W winds are expected north of 27N on either side of the front around midday Thu through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of the front through Fri, as it continues eastward, with seas of 10-15 ft in NW swell in the wake of the front. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Colombia near 04N77W to 07N86W to 05N96W. The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 08N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the ITCZ west of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California, producing light anticyclonic winds across the offshore waters. A cold front west of 125W is associated with a deep low pressure system well north of the area. This system has generated very large NW swell, with satellite altimeter data early this morning showing seas of 20 to 25 ft near 30N130W. This powerful NW swell will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte later today, and build through early Thu morning. Peak seas of 10-15 ft across the northern waters late tonight will reach 8-12 ft in southern waters Thu, then slowly subside Thu night through early Sat. In addition to generating high and hazardous seas across the offshore waters, this large long period swell will create very high and dangerous surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja Wed night through Thu, and produce very strong rip currents in the surf zone, and localized areas of coastal erosion. Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds prevail over all but the far northern Gulf this morning, with seas 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Gulf through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf region, and become fresh to strong across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front across the NW forecast waters extends from 30N125W TO 21N140W. Winds associated with an intense low pressure system well north of the area are 20-30 kt. Winds will diminish between 27N and 30N today as the low pressure system lifts northeastward and weakens. Large seas to 25 ft in large long period NW swell along 30N will move west of 115W today, and into the offshore waters of Baja California by late tonight. The front will weaken and become ill defined between 120W and Baja California tonight $$ Mundell