000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1357 UTC Tue Jan 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly gap 
winds will increase to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
tonight around 0600 UTC as strong high pressure expands eastward 
across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions will prevail through 
Thu night, with winds rapidly diminishing on Friday as winds in 
the Gulf of Mexico sharply veer to the south. Please see the 
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A surface trough extends from Colombia near 08N75W to 08N85W to
06N90W to 05N102W. The ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 06N120W to
beyond 04N140W. No significant convection. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, 
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Lingering NW 
swell to 7-8 ft across the area will subside today. A strong 
cold front currently moving across the open waters that are to 
the west of Baja California peninsula will bring a new set of 
long period NW swell on Wednesday. This swell event will affect
the offshore forecast waters off Baja California late Wed 
through Thu, then spread SE through Friday.

Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
expected over the entire Gulf today, and across the central and 
southern portion of the Gulf through Wed. Then, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: NE to E winds will experience diurnal pulsing, 
becoming fresh to strong across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo each night through the weekend. 
  
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds downstream to 
near 05N with seas to 6 ft will continue through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A cold front across the NW forecast waters extends from 30N132W
to 24N140W. Latest scatterometer data indicated that the gale 
force winds associated with an intense low pressure system 
centered well north of the area near 41N138W are just N of 30N, 
with 25-30 kt winds on either side of the cold front N of 28N W
of 126W. Winds will diminish later today as the low pressure 
system lifts northeastward. The massive size of winds greater 
than gale force north of the area will generate large long period
NW swell, with combined seas building to 20-25 ft NW of the 
front today. The front will weaken and dissipate between 120W 
and 125W on Wed night, but the swell event will continue to 
propagate SE into the Mexican coast waters.

A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the 
area by late Thu morning, followed by reinforcing large long 
period NW swell. Strong to gale force SW to W winds are expected
north of 29N on either side of the front Thu afternoon through 
early Fri. Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of
the front through Fri, with seas of 10-15 ft in NW swell in the 
wake of the front. 

$$
GR