000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to near gale force tonight, as high pressure builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre montains in Mexico. Then, winds will further increase to gale force across the Gulf waters on Tuesday evening, as strong high pressure expands eastward across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions will prevail through Thursday night, with the wind speeds decreasing to strong early on Friday and below advisory criteria on Friday afternoon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. Cold front Gale Warning: A strong cold front is entering the NW corner of the forecast area early this afternoon. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds are ahead of the front NW of a line from 30N132W to 27N140W. The combination of wind waves and long period NW swell will support seas in the range of 13 to 27 ft west of the front and of 8 to 12 ft ahead of it. Gale conditions ahead of the front will persist through tonight, however these conditions will prevail west of the front through Tue morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 07N85W to 04N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 06N120W to 04N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm S and 90 nm N of the trough and ITCZ E of 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula, producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds with seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell. The ridge will persist across the area through Fri morning. A strong cold front moving across the open waters that are to the west of Baja California, today and Tue will bring a new set of long period NW swell on Wednesday morning, with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet. This swell will spread SE across the offshore waters of Baja California through Friday. Moderate NE winds will dominate the region with this second swell event. Gulf of California: NW winds of 15 to 20 kt are over the central and southern Gulf this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens over north-central Mexico. By Tue, moderate to fresh NW winds will affect most of the Gulf of California waters. Winds will become light and variable again over the northern Gulf by Tue night. However, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast to persist across the central and southern Gulf through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please, see Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday. The wind speeds will be the greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean Sea. Gulf of Panama: mainly light and variable winds are forecast through Wed night with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. Winds are expected to increase to 10-15 kt Thu and Thu night, with seas of 4-6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N119W, and extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. The high pressure center will remain nearly stationary and disipate by Fri as a strong cold front moves eastward across the norther forecast waters. Looking ahead, another strong cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the area on Thu, followed by another set of long period NW swell. Marine guidance suggests again strong to minimal gale force SW winds ahead of the front with strong to near gale force winds in the wake of the front. $$ Ramos