000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease to less than 20 knots on Monday afternoon. The wind speeds will increase on Monday night to near gale force, as high pressure builds across southern Mexico. Gale force winds are expected to begin across the Gulf waters on Tuesday night, as strong high pressure expands eastward across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions then will prevail through Thursday night, with the wind speeds decreasing to less than gale-force on Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through 06N77W at the coast of Colombia, to 05N81W to 06N87W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W, to 07N110W to 05N125W and to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 83W and 84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 90W and 98W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A set of long period NW swell prevails across the offshore waters of Baja California, associated with a cold front that dissipated yesterday. Sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet will continue to propagate across the waters W of Baja California through Monday night, when the swell will subside. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail in this region during the swell event. A new cold front, moving across the open waters that are to the west of Baja California, on Monday and Tuesday. The front will bring a new set of long period swell on Wednesday morning, with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet. This swell will spread SE across the offshore waters of Baja California through Friday. Moderate NE winds will dominate across the region with this second swell event. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected through this morning. Strong high pressure will build N of the Gulf this afternoon, thus supporting 15 to 20 knot NW winds mainly S of 30N. The winds will become light and variable again in the northern Gulf of California by Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast to persist across the central and southern Gulf of California through Thursday. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please, refer to the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday. The wind speeds will be the greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean Sea. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama and downstream waters to 05N tonight. Sea heights to 8 feet are expected through Monday morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from Baja California Sur near 23N109W to 21N111W to 18N114W. Fresh to strong winds are west of the trough from 14N to 22N between 108W and 126W. These winds will diminish to moderate to fresh later this morning as a cold front approaches the NW forecast waters. NW swell associated with an earlier cold front will prevail across the waters N of 10N through Tuesday. The new cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to the east of the front this morning. Near gale-force winds are forecast to follow in the afternoon to the west of the front as the front moves across the NW waters. Winds are forecast to diminish to fresh on Tuesday night. Long period NW swell associated with the front will support seas to 24 ft. This swell will start to subside on Thursday morning. Another set of swell will accompany a second and stronger cold front, that will enter the NW forecast waters on Thursday afternoon. $$ mt