000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong gap winds in the gulf will decrease to less than 20 kt Mon afternoon. Winds will pick up again Mon evening increasing to near gale force as high pressure builds across southern Mexico. Gale force winds are expected to begin across the gulf waters Tue in the afternoon as strong high pressure expands east across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions will then prevail through Thu night with winds decreasing below advisory criteria on Fri afternoon. Please see the latest High seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located in Colombia near 08N74W to 03N81W to 06N87W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 06N105W to 07N110W to 05N126W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough E of 85W, and from 04N to 09N between 105W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A set of long period NW swell prevails across the offshores of Baja associated with a former cold front that dissipated earlier this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 12 ft associated with this swell will continue to propagate across the waters W of Baja California through Mon night when it will subside. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will dominate over the region during this period. A new cold front moving across open waters west of baja will bring a new set of long period swell Wed morning with seas of 8 to 14 ft spreading SE across the offshores of Baja through next Friday. Moderate NE winds will dominate across the region with this second swell event. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected through Mon morning. Strong high pressure will build N of the gulf Mon afternoon, thus supporting NW winds in the range of 15- 20 kt mainly S of 30N. Winds will become light and variable again over the northern Gulf by Tue night. However, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast to persist across the central and southern Gulf through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please, see Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected tonight across the gulf of Panama and downstream waters to 05N. Seas to 8 ft are expected through Mon morning. Winds are expected to increase again by Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1013 mb low is located near 18N117W with an associated trough extennding from Baja California Sur to the low to 12N122W. Fresh to strong winds are within 150 nm west semicircle of the low and are expected to continue through late Mon morning when the low is forecast to dissipate. A relatively small area of fresh to strong trade winds is also noted over just N of the ITCZ over the far western waters. This is due to the pressure gradient between a ridge to the N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. This area of trade winds covers mainly the waters from 11N to 17N W of 135W. A strong cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast area by early Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on either side of the front. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front. Seas are forecast to build to 20-22 ft behind the front and near 30N140W by Mon night. $$ NR