000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jan 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N-to-NE Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, are being experienced from 15N northward between 94.5W and 95.5W, including in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, at this moment. Expect that the gale-force winds will subside in about 6 hours or so. Please read the High Seas Forecast...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC... for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through Colombia near 07N77W, and it continues to 05N83W and 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 04N100W 09N114W 05N130W beyond 04N140W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening and remnant widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 200 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 106W and 115W, and within 250 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 111W and 119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in fading NW swell. A 1013 mb low pressure center currently near 18N121W will track N-NE today. The low pressure center will dissipate today, into an elongated trough from near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur to 20N118W and 14N119W. The process of the dissipation of the 1013 mb low pressure center will coincide with the arrival of a weakening cold front into Baja California Norte this morning. Cloudiness and moisture associated with the remnants of the low pressure center will continue to spread northeastward across Baja California through Monday, and produce periods of rainshowers, some possibly with thunder. Surface high pressure building behind the cold front will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the waters from Sunday through Monday. NW swell associated with the dissipating cold front will bring sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet toward the area, from today until Monday afternoon/evening. Gulf of California: N to NW winds of 10-15 kt across the Gulf will continue to diminish slowly through today, ahead of the approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NW wind flow will develop across the Gulf, from Monday morning until Wednesday afternoon/night, as surface high pressure builds N of the area. These winds will diminish after Wednesday night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is supporting N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, from 15N northward between 94.5W and 95.5W, for the next 6 hours or so. Expect strong-to-near gale force winds across the area that is from 13.5N northward, including in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between 94.5W and 95.5W, from this morning until tonight. The wind speeds will slow down, from fresh-to-strong, from tonight until Monday night. Expect pulses of strong-to-near gale force winds to occur during the morning and afternoon hours from Tuesday until Thursday, with only fresh-to-strong winds and comparatively smaller areal coverage during the nighttime hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tuesday night. Gulf of Panama: Expect periods of fresh-to-strong N to NE winds, and 8 foot sea heights, from 05N northward from 81W eastward, from the morning hours until the first half of the afternoon, from today until Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front passes through 30N119W TO 23N127W TO 19N135W. The associated NW swell is generating sea heights that are ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet N of 26N between 121W and 133W. The front will continue to weaken as it approaches the offshore waters of Baja California, where it is forecast to dissipate on Sunday night. A surface trough extends from 22N116W to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 18N121W. The surface trough continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center to 15N121W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 13N to 14N between 115W and 117W, from 15N to 18N between 115W and 117W, and from 19N to 21N between 116W and 117W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 11N136W. The wind speeds near the low center are less than 20 knots. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet. Both low pressure centers will weaken and dissipate on Sunday. Mixed swell, with seas ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, will prevail through the at least the first half of this week. $$ mt