000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through Colombia near 07N77W, and it continues to 06N83W and 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 04N100W 09N113W 05N130W beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 113W and 115W, and from 90 nm to 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 114W and 117W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening and remnant rainshowers are elsewhere within 400 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 108W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in fading NW swell. A low pressure center currently near 19N122W will track N-NE through tonight and Sunday, when it will dissipate into an elongated trough from near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur to 20N120W. This will coincide with the arrival of a weakening cold front into Baja California Norte on Sunday morning. Cloudiness and moisture associated with the remnants of the low pressure center will continue to spread northeastward across Baja California through Monday, and produce periods of rainshowers, some possibly with thunder. Surface high pressure building behind the cold front will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the waters from Sunday through Monday. NW swell associated with the dissipating cold front will bring sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet into the northern waters early on Sunday morning, and then spread SE into the remaining waters through Monday. Gulf of California: N to NW winds of 10-15 kt across the Gulf will continue to diminish slowly through tonight, ahead of the approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NW wind flow will develop again across the Gulf, from Monday morning until Wednesday afternoon/night, as surface high pressure builds N of the area. These winds will diminish after Wednesday night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is supporting strong to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14N. These winds will continue through for the next 24 hours or so. Expect fresh to strong winds from Sunday until Monday night. Strong to near gale-force N-to-NE winds will reach as far as 12.5N/13N between 94.5W and 96.5W on Tuesday afternoon, and again on Wednesday morning/ afternoon. Gulf of Panama: Expect a few periods of N to NE winds 20 to 25 knots, with sea heights less than 8 feet, from 05N northward from 81W eastward, during the late night/overnight hours tonight and Sunday, and then again from Sunday night into Monday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Tuesday, briefly increasing to strong on Sunday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front passes through 30N122W to 24N127W to 20N135W. Associated NW swell is generating sea heights that are ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet N of 27N between 126W and 136W. The swell generated by this front extends eastward more to 118W. The front will continue to weaken as it approches the offshore waters of Baja California, where it is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. A surface trough extends from 23N116W to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 19N122W. The surface trough continues from the 1008 mb low center to 15N124W. Expect 20 to 25 knot winds within 120 nm NW semicircle, and within 150 nm NW semicircle. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 12N135W. Expect 20 to 25 knot winds within 210 nm of the NW quadrant. Both low pressure centers will weaken and dissipate on Sunday. Mixed swell, with seas ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, will prevail through early next week. $$ mt