000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N108W to 07N123W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 107W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 4-6 ft in fading NW swell. A low pressure center currently near 19N122W will track N- NE through tonight, when it will dissipate into an elongated trough from near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur to 20N120W. This will coincide with the arrival of a weakening cold front into Baja California Norte Sun morning. Cloudiness and moisture associated with the remnants of the low will continue to spread northeastward across Baja California through Mon and produce periods of showers with a few thunderstorms. High pressure building behind the cold front will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the waters Sun through Mon. NW swell associated with the dissipating cold front will bring seas of 8-11 ft into the northern waters early Sun morning and then spread SE into the remaining waters through Mon. Gulf of California: N to NW winds of 10-15 kt across the gulf will continue to slowly diminish through this evening, ahead of the approaching weak cold front. Moderate to fresh NW flow will develop again across the gulf Mon morning as high pressure builds N of the area. These winds will diminish by the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting strong to near gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13.5N. These winds will continue through early Mon, then diminish to 20-25 kt throughout through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, briefly increasing to strong on Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front moves across the north-central waters this evening with associated NW swell generating seas of 12 to 15 ft N of 27N between 126W and 136W. The swell generated by this front extends farther east to about 118W. The front will continue to weaken as it approches the offshores of Baja California where it is forecast to dissipate Sun. Between the ITCZ and the front, two centers of low pressure are analyzed. The westernmost low has a 1008 mb pressure and 20-25 kt winds within 210 nm of the NW quadrant. The easternmost low has a pressure of 1008 mb and 20-25 kt winds within 120 nm and 150 nm NW and SE semicircles, respectively. Both lows will weaken and dissipate on Sun. However, mixed swell with seas ranging from 8 to 10 ft will prevail through early next week. $$ NR