000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N85W to 04N91W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 07N110W to 05N127W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 12N between 112W and 120W, and from 08N to 14N between 124W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds are across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 4-6 ft in fading NW swell. A low pressure center currently near 18N125W will track N-NE through tonight, when it will dissipate into an elongated trough from near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur to 20N120W. This will coincide with the arrival of a weakening cold front into Baja California Norte Sun morning. Cloudiness and moisture associated with the remnants of the low will spread northeastward across Baja California this afternoon through Mon and produce periods of showers with a few thunderstorms. Associated high pressure behind the cold front will build eastward into the offshore waters Sun through Mon to produce fresh northerly winds across the waters. NW swell associated with the dissipating cold front will bring seas of 8-11 ft into the northern waters early Sun morning spread SE into the remaining waters through Mon. Gulf of California: N to NW of 10-15 kt across the gulf will continue to slowly diminish through tonight, ahead of the approaching weak cold front. Moderate southerly winds will occur briefly tonight and early Sun morning across north portions just ahead of the front, then become variable less than 15 kt behind the front Sun and Sun night, while moderate NW flow develops across the remainder of the Gulf waters. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting strong to near gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N. These winds will continue through early Mon, then diminish to 20-25 kt throughout through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, briefly increasing to strong on Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure near 30N119W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and low pressure near 14.5N126W is producing a zone of fresh to locally strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to about 21N between 110W and 140W. This high pressure continues to drift NE tonight and weaken ahead of an approaching cold front and gradually reduce the areal extent of these fresh to strong tradewinds. A cold front over the NW portion of the discussion area from 30N129W TO 24N135W TO 22.5N140W will move eastward through the weekend, and cross 120W Sat evening as it weakens. Long period NW swell generated behind the front is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 11 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Seas will increase behind the front as large NW swell raises seas to 10-14 ft to the N of 23N through late Sun. $$ NR