000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042208 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting winds of 20-30 kt funneling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to gale force this evening, and continue through early in the afternoon on Sat. Strong to near gale force winds will continue through Sun before gradually diminish to less than 20 kt early Mon morning. For further details please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N110W to 08N122W then resumes near 04N130W and continues to 07N135W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 111W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 118W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered near 29N121W extends a ridge SE to southern Baja supporting light to gentle winds across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell. A low pressure center currently near 15N123W will track N- NE through Sat night when it will dissipate about 480 nm SW of Baja California Sur. Mixed swell associated with the low will merge with NW swell associated with a dissipating cold front on Sun morning. This swell in the form of 8-11 ft seas will affect the offshores of Baja through Mon evening along with NE moderate to locally fresh winds. Gulf of California: N to NW winds of 15-20 kt are across the gulf continuing through early next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to near gale force winds are across the gulf as a cold front moves across the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds will commence this evening, as discussed above in the special features section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, briefly increasing to strong on Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure near 29N121W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and complex low pressure between near 15N123W is maintaining a broad area of fresh to near gale tradewinds N of the ITCZ between 111W and 133W. This area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area through today to maintain a broad area of fresh to strong trades. A cold front over the NW portion of the discussion area will nudge the weakening high pressure eastward on Sat and weaken the pressure gradient to the south. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 11 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. The cold front is expected to reach from 30N125W to 23N140W by Sat morning and from 30N117W to 20N130W by Sun morning. Large NW swell associated with this front is moving across the northern waters supporting seas in the range of 10-14 ft. $$ NR