000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting winds of 20-25 kt funneling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to increase to gale force this evening, and continue through Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will continue through Sun before gradually diminish to less than 20 kt early Mon morning. For further details please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N107W to 10N120W then resumes near 06N128W and continues to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 112W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 112W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 19N between 120W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered to the W of the area near 29N127W extends a ridge SE to central Baja. This pattern is producing moderate N to NE winds across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas of 4-7 ft in NW swell. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through early this afternoon. A low pressure center currently near 14N125W will track N-NE over the weekend, approaching the offshores waters of Baja California Sur early Sun. Variable gentle winds and increasing clouds and showers will shift into the area from the SW late Sat and Sun as this low approaches. NW swell associated with a weakening cold front and mixed swell associated with the low will start affecting the Baja offshore waters by Sat night. The low is expected to gradually merge with an approaching cold front Sun to produce fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters Sun afternoon and evening. Gulf of California: N to NW winds of 15 kt are across the gulf continuing through the weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to near gale force winds are across the gulf as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Gales are expected to commence by Fri late in the afternoon, as discussed above in the special features section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected elsewhere from El Salvador to Panama through today. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure near 29N127W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and complex low pressure between near 14N125W is maintaining a broad area of fresh to near gale tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 23N and W of 114W. This area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area through today to maintain a broad area of fresh to strong trades. A cold front over the NW portion of the discussion area will nudge the weakening high pressure eastward on Sat and weaken the pressure gradient to the south. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 11 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. The cold front is expected to reach from 30N125W to 23N140W by Sat morning and from 30N117W to 20N130W by Sun morning. Large NW swell generated behind this front will move into area waters today, raising seas to 10-14 ft behind the front Sat morning and 10-13 ft by Sun morning. A large area of disturbed weather associated with an upper trough and a broad area of surface low pressure is persisting across the tropical Pacific. The low is forecast to move slowly northward over the next few days. The low is expected to produce strong to near gale force winds through Sat evening. $$ NR