000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022028
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2030 UTC Wed Jan 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning... 
A large upper level trough over the western forecast waters has
helped for falling pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ, with 
convective clusters generating locally tighter pressure 
gradients. The latest 1724 ASCAT B pass indicates a large area of
30 kt winds, with embedded winds to 35 kt within this zone from 
07N to 10N between 122W and 125W. A gale warning is in effect 
over this area for the next several hours.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N81W to 06N85W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N85W to 04N95W to 08N117W to 07N120W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection was noted from 04.5N to 12N between 102W and 132W. 
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 12N to 22N between 
110W and 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: High pressure across the Great Basin region 
will support fresh to strong NW winds across the full length of 
the Gulf of California through Thu morning. Strong northerly 
winds will spill through the mountain gaps of the Baja Peninsula 
to produce narrow zones of strong and gusty NE winds across the 
offshore Pacific waters of Baja California.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front is expected to move across the
western Gulf of Mexico Thu and reach the Bay of Campeche early 
Fri. Winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri morning, increasing to gale force Fri through and
Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The gale warning over the Gulf of Papagayo has been brought down
this afternoon. Strong NE to E winds are expected across and
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Fresh to strong
offshore winds are expected elsewhere from El Salvador to Panama
through Fri. Moderate to fresh N winds will prevail across the
Gulf of Panama through Thu, pulsing to strong during the
overnight hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds
are expected S of 08N.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Please see above for more information on a gale warning over the
discussion area.

Elsewhere the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the 
area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong tradewinds N of the 
ITCZ to near 21N and W of 122W. This area of high pressure will 
remain in place N of the area helping to maintain this broad area
of fresh to strong trades. Long period NW swell is merging with 
this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 12 ft over much of 
the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. 

A cold-core upper low is digging southward into the base of a 
mid/upper level trough between 125W and 145W today through Fri.
This will support the development of a sharp surface trough and 
eventually weak low pressure along the ITCZ between 120W and 135W
on Thu. The resultant tightened pressure gradient will enhance 
trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with near gale 
conditions possible developing north of the surface trough and 
low to near 16N. Active convection will prevail north of the ITCZ
across this area today through Thu night.

$$
AL