000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1446 UTC Wed Jan 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure extending from a western Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is producing strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds have pulsed to gale force within 45 nm downstream of the Papagayo area. Winds will diminish below gale force by midday today. Strong gap winds across the Papagayo region will continue into the upcoming weekend. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N74W to 06N86W. The ITCZ extends from 06N86W to 04N95W to 09N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection was noted from 04.5N to 12N between 109W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 22N between 110W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Subsiding northwesterly swell is propagating across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Seas will subside below 8 ft by this afternoon. Gulf of California: High pressure across the Great Basin region will support fresh to strong NW winds across the full length of the Gulf of California through Thu morning. Strong northerly winds will spill through the mountain gaps of the Baja Peninsula to produce narrow zones of strong and gusty NE winds across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon. A cold front is expected to move across the western Gulf of Mexico Thu and reach the Bay of Campeche early Fri. Winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri morning, increasing to gale force Fri through and Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Papagayo gale force gap wind event. A strong high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic and Caribbean is producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds across much of central America, from the Gulf of Fonseca to the Gulf of Panama. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Thu, pulsing to strong during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 122W. This area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area helping to maintain this broad area of fresh to strong trades. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 12 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Global models continue to indicate a cold-core upper low will dig southward into the base of a mid/upper level trough between 125W and 145W today through Fri. This will support the development of a sharp surface trough and eventually weak low pressure along the ITCZ between 125W and 135W on Thu. The resultant tightened pressure gradient will enhance trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with near gale conditions possible developing north of the surface trough and low to near 16N. Active convection will prevail north of the ITCZ across this area today through Thu night. $$ AL