000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020349 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure extending westward from Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is producing strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds have pulsed to near gale force last night with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. Winds across the Papagayo region will reach minimal gale force tonight through Wed morning before diminishing below gale force by midday. Strong gap winds across the Papagayo region will continue into the upcoming weekend. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 03N78.5W TO 04.5N87W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N87W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection was noted from 04.5N to 12N between 110W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 12N to 17N between 105W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1012 mb low pressure center has drifted from just offshore of southern California to near Isla Guadaloupe this evening, with an accompanying cold front extending SW across the NW portion of Mexico to near Punta Eugenia to the low. Strong northerly winds to 25 kt behind the front are veering to the NE across the offshore waters Baja California Norte. Subsiding northwesterly swell is propagating across these waters, producing seas in the 7-10 ft range. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed. South of the front, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail with seas 4-7 ft in NW swell. The low will dissipate by Wed while the front will shift southward and gradually dissipate through late Wed. Associated high pressure behind the front will maintain fresh to locally strong NE winds across these waters through Thu morning. Gulf of California: High pressure building southward into the area from the Great Basin region will support strong NW winds spreading down the full length of the Gulf of California this evening through Wed night. Strong northerly winds will spill through the mountain gaps of the Baja Peninsula to produce narrow zones of strong and gusty NE winds across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish on Wed. A cold front is expected to move across the western Gulf of Mexico Thu and reach the Bay of Campeche early Fri. Winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri morning and increasing to gale force Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Papagayo gale force gap wind event. A strong high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic and Caribbean is producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds across all of central America, including the Gulf of Fonseca. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Thu, pulsing to strong during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 130W, and from the ITCZ to near 19N between 112W and 130W. This area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area helping to maintain this broad area of fresh to strong trades. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 12 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Global models continue to indicate a cold-core upper low will dig southward into the base of a mid/upper level trough between 125W and 145W today through Fri. This will support the development of a sharp surface trough or even weak low pressure along the ITCZ between 120W and 130W by Wed. The resultant tightened pressure gradient will enhance trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with near gale conditions possible developing north of the surface trough or low to near 15N. $$ Stripling