000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jan 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N75W TO 03N80W TO 06N87W. The ITCZ continues from 06N87W TO 05N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 08.5N between 96W and 102W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N W of 102W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 113W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep layered low pressure across the SW U.S. is sinking slowly southward tonight, with the associated surface pattern producing gentle to moderate NW to W winds across the waters of Baja California. Northwesterly swell is propagating across the waters off Baja California Norte with seas in the 6-10 ft range and seas of 4-6 ft across Baja California Sur. Seas will generally subside below 8 ft Tue night through Wed. Gulf of California: SW winds over the northern gulf have strengthened ahead of a cold front which will move across the Gulf waters Tue. High pressure building across the Great Basin region of United States will help support strong NWly winds over the Gulf of California Tue through Thu. Strong northerly winds will spill through the mountain gaps of the Baja Peninsula to produce narrow zones of strong and gusty NE winds across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja California Tue night through late Wed night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec early Tue, before diminishing Wed. Another cold front is expected to move across the western Gulf of Mexico Thu. The front will reach the Bay of Campeche early Fri. Winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. Winds may further increase to gale force Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, peaking near 30 kt during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Thu, pulsing to strong during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 110W. The area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area helping to maintain this broad area of fresh to strong trades. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Global models continue to indicate a cold-core upper low will dig southward into the base of a mid/upper level trough between 130W and 135W Tue through Fri. This will support the development of a sharp surface trough or even weak low pressure along the ITCZ between 120W and 130W by mid week. The resultant tightened pressure gradient will enhance trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with near gale conditions possible north of the surface trough or low. $$ Stripling