000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 UTC Thu Dec 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N85W to 05N92W. ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 05N97W to 07N106W to 05N113W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 08N between 104W and 110W, within 60 NM either side of a line from 11N114W to 10N123W and from 06N to 10N W of 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to between 20 and 25 kt across the far N part of the Gulf tonight through Sun with seas building to between 5 and 7 ft as a frontal trough crosses the region Thu night and Fri. W Gap winds will peak near gale force Thu night between 30N and 31N, then briefly subside to between fresh and strong. Then, robust high pressure building over the Great Basin will set up a prolonged drainage NW wind event along the entire length of the Gulf of California Fri night through Sun night. Strong NE gap winds could spill out over the offshore forecast waters in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia during this time frame. In addition, the fresh to strong N winds are also expected to affect the waters near Los Cabos Sat night and Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds and seas have subsided as high pressure slides E from the Gulf of Mexico. Nocturnal drainage could bring strong winds to the waters N of 15N Sun night. Satellite-derived wind data from around 0515Z indicate high pressure ridging SE over the offshore forecast waters is generating moderate to fresh NW to N winds along the length of the Baja Peninsula. Seas in this area are running between 9 and 11 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will pulse over these waters through Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell are reaching the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Sur, while seas of 8 ft are noted near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to affect the offshore waters W of Baja California through at least the end of this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across the area through Mon. The winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours, during the times of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are forecast to build to between 8 and 10 ft while winds peak near gale force on Sat. Gulf of Panama: Strong winds N of 05N will subside to fresh this morning. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Mon with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere: Moderate NE winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N. Moderate S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 08N through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1033 mb high pressure system centered near 39N135W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds, particularly from 07N to 22N W of 120W. Seas in this area range between 8 and 11 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through the end of this week. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters mainly W of 110W and support seas of 8 to 11 ft. The swell will slowly decay and allow seas E of 115W to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ CAM