000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force north to northeast winds and seas to 12 ft are within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W. Elsewehre, north to northeast winds of 20 to 25 kt are within 60 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W to 14N96W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The gale force winds will diminish soon to strong to near gale force winds as the gradient over southeastern Mexico slackens. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less on Wed. The associated NE swell will propagate SW and merge with long period cross-equatorial swell resulting in 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropical waters from roughly 06N to 10N between 93W and 112W. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional marine specific information. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Light southwest winds will gradually increase and veer to strong west winds along 30N ahead of a cold front that will quickly move across the northern Gulf of California waters this afternoon and evening. Minimal gale force west winds will follow in behind the front by early this afternoon from 30N to 31N, with seas building to around 8 ft. The cold front will weaken as it sweeps southeastward across the central Gulf waters Wed. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional marine specific information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends southwestward off the Pacific coast of Colombia from 10N75W to 06N77W to 04N82W to 05N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ then begins and continues to 07N107W to 06N130W to 07N131W and to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W and 128W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 to 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 north of the ITCZ between 108W and 114W, and also within 30 nm of 06N98W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...See special features above for details on an ongoing gap wind event. Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above for details on soon to develop gale force winds. A ridge extends from near 32N136W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N108W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds currently north of 30N will spread southward to near 27N and increase to near gale force by this evening as seas build to between 11 and 17 ft. These winds will generate reinforcing long period NW swell and bring 7 to 9 ft seas to the waters adjacent to the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wed night. Conditions will gradually improve Thu through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast winds will reach as far southwest as 09N90W through early on Wed, then expand northward late Wed night and Thu, diminish in coverage Thu afternoon, briefly expand in coverage again late Thu night before diminishing again on Fri. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will increase to strong winds tonight into Wed, then diminish to mainly fresh winds Wed through Thu night and to mainly moderate winds Fri. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate northeast winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle S winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will stretch from a 1031 mb high north of the area at 36N136W through 32N134W, to 23N122W and to near 17N109W this week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds, with resultant seas of 9 to 10 ft, will continue across the tropical waters west of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Seas in this area will run between 8 and 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong NW flow beginning N of 29N E of 124W this morning will spread southward to 27N and increase to near gale force today, with seas running as high as 11 to 17 ft in northwest swell. The pressure gradient to the west of Baja California Norte will relax briefly on Thu, then tighten again Thu night and Fri. In the meantime, a larger area of long period northwest swell will continue surrounding these two enhanced areas. All of the long period northwest swell will continue propagating southeastward through the waters north of 09N and west of 115W during the remainder of this week bringing 8 to 11 ft seas. The combination of cross equatorial swell and northeast swell associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo winds will maintain 7 to 9 ft seas across the waters from 05N to 12N between 91W and 115W until Thu. $$ Aguirre