000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 717 UTC Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds and seas to 13 ft extend S to 15N95W. The associated strong winds extend as far S as 13.5N96W. Gale conditions are forecast to end by mid morning today. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less on Wed. The associated NE swell will propagate SW and merge with long period cross-equatorial swell resulting in 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropical waters from roughly 06N to 10N between 93W and 112W. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Light SW winds will gradually increase and veer to a strong W breeze along 30N ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern gulf waters this afternoon and evening. Near gale force W winds will develop N of 29N Tue afternoon and rapidly increase to minimal gale force. Seas to 8 ft are forecast to develop along 30N tonight. The cold front will weaken as it sweeps SE across the central gulf waters Wed. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia from 10N75W to 04N82W, then W to 05N93W, then continues W as the ITCZ to 06N108W to 07N131W where it is split by a surface trough extending from 05N133W to 09N133W to 12N132W. The ITCZ resumes from 06N135W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 08N126W to 10N132W. Scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 122W and 134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 122W and 134W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...See special features paragraph above. Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above. A ridge reaches from near 32N137W to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N108W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds currently N of 30N will spread S to near 27N and increase to near gale force by Tue evening as seas build to between 11 and 17 ft. These winds will generate reinforcing long-period NW swell and bring 7 to 9 ft seas to the waters adjacent to the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wed night. Conditions will gradually improve Thu through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE flow will reach as far SW as 09N91W through Tue morning with pulses of strong NE winds then continuing the remainder of the week. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast this week except that winds will become locally strong Tue night and Wed. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while light to gentle S winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will remain aligned from near 32N137W to near 16N108W this week. Fresh to locally strong NE trades will continue across the tropical waters W of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Seas in this area will run between 8 and 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong NW flow beginning N of 29N E of 124W this morning will spread S to 27N and increase to near gale force on Tue with seas running as high as 11 to 17 ft in NW swell. The pressure gradient W of Baja California Norte will relax briefly on Thu, then tighten again Thu night and Fri. In the meantime, a larger area of long period NW swell will continue surrounding these two enhanced areas. All of the long period NW swell will continue propagating SE across the waters N of 09N and W of 115W this week, manifested in the form of 7 to 11 ft seas. The combination of cross equatorial swell and NE swell associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo winds will maintain 7 to 9 ft seas across the waters from 05N to 12N between 91W and 115W until Thu. $$ CAM