000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240952 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 940 UTC Mon Dec 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds of 30 to 40 kt will prevail through this morning with seas building to 15 ft well downstream near 15N95W. The associated strong winds will reach as far S as 12N97W today before beginning to diminish. Winds will diminish to near gale force around sunrise on Tue and then below 20 kt by Wed afternoon. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. Gulf of California: Light northerly winds are forecast across the northern gulf waters, with moderate northerly flow expected to continue across the southern gulf waters through this morning. Winds are forecast to increase to a strong W breeze along 30N ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern gulf waters late Tue, followed by near gale force northerly winds. Minimal gale force westerly winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas, are expected along 30N by late Tue in advance of a secondary cold front that will sweep SE across the central gulf waters on Wed. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 06N77W to 04N93W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 07N122W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 07N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 91W and 106W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W and 140W. Some of this convection is associated with a surface trough that breaks the ITCZ, extending from 14N123W to 03N124W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...See special features paragraph above. Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above. A ridge is meandering from 30N133W to 15N103W with moderate northerly winds W of northern Baja California Peninsula, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds observed elsewhere around the ridge to the N of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Long-period NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, is crossing 30N120W this morning as confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate SE to the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula through midweek. A tightening pressure gradient will increase north to northwest winds to a strong breeze N of 31N later today, with strong to near gale force NW winds forecast N of 26N on Tue night, with seas building to 12 to 18 ft. Conditions will begin to improve offshore Baja California on Wed. Elsewhere: gentle to moderate winds will prevail the next several days with seas of 4 to 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE flow will reach as far SW as 09N91W through Tue morning with pulses of strong NE winds continuing the remainder of the week. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue over the area through this morning. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while gentle southerly winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range throughout the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure meandering near 34N139W and lower pressures near the ITCZ will produce fresh to locally strong NE trades SW of the ridge, from about 08N to 25N W of 125W with seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft throughout the week. NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the area covering the waters N of 06N W of 110W through early Tue. As this swell begins to subside during midweek, another set of reinforcing NW swell will begin to cross 30N140W. The combination of cross equatorial swell and NE swell associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo winds will result in seas of 7 to 10 ft generally S of 12N between the Galapagos islands and 120W through today. The swell of 8 ft or greater will then become confined from 05N to 12N between 92W and 110W through Wed before diminishing. Strong to near gale force northerly winds, and 10 to 18 ft seas are forecast N of 28N E of 125W Tue through Tue night, improving on Wed. $$ Latto