000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 UTC Mon Dec 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico will continue moving across the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the post- frontal high pressure building across the Gulf of Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific will help for northerly winds to surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will strengthen on Tue morning, then reach minimal gale force late Tue afternoon. The gale conditions will then persist through late Wed night. Seas will peak near 13 ft downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late Fri night. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N98W to 08.5N105W to 08N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N105W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 84W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features paragraph above for more on the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Gulf of California: A trough will move into the northern Gulf of California late Wed into Thu. This will allow fresh to locally strong winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California briefly from Wed night to early Thu. Elsewhere: Seas over the forecast waters W of 100W continue to subside. Currently, seas over this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Seas will continue to subside through midweek, when 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail. A fresh set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed night. The swell will spread southward across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range expected by Friday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Volcanic ash originating from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala remains well inland at the moment, but is expected to be advected southwesterly later today, and may pass across the Pacific coast near the Guatemala-Mexican border. Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE winds are expected through Wed. Winds will strengthen Wed night through Fri with seas building to 8 ft. Elsewhere: The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N this week with light to gentle variable flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, forecast N of the monsoon trough, and moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N136W TO 26N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 NM E of the front. The fresh to strong SW flow will accompany the front through Tue as the front shifts eastward across the forecast waters N of 20N. The front will also usher in a set of NW swell into the area, with seas building to a peak of near 13 ft north of 28N and west of 135W Tue night. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW part of the discussion area Wed night, building seas to near 14 ft N of 28N and W of 135W by Thu morning. The swells will continue to spread SE through the end of the week, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters W of 110W by Sat. $$ AL